Error Jordan?

Every season in recent years for the Pittsburgh Penguins it seems like there is some storyline bubbling just under the surface and 2008-09 is no different as all eyes seemed to be focused on 20-year old Jordan Staal. Many Pens fans, and I am guessing people within the organization as well, are wondering just what the Penguins really have in Staal. Jordan set the bar (too?) high in his rookie campaign scoring 29 goals and 42 points in 2006-07. Last season Staal's totals sagged to a modest 12 goals and 28 points. As Jordan enters the final year of his entry level contract it remains to be seen if he can rediscover his scoring touch or if he continues to plug along as a third line center.

I said as early as the start of last season that it could be a while before Jordan approached 29 goals in a season again. His rookie season just felt a little too good to be true to me. It was like almost everything he threw at the net just found a way in. Having said that, I do think he can produce more offensively than he did last season or so far this season.

Offense is just one facet to Staal's game however. While centering the Penguins third line for almost all of last season Staal found himself serving as one of the key pieces to the Penguins defensive puzzle. Jordan thrived in this role, even if his stats may have said otherwise, and was a key contributor in Pittsburgh's trip to the Stanley Cup Finals.

Staal's defensive contributions can not be taken lightly, but as many NHL media outlets continue to suggest that Staal should command an annual salary around $4.5-$5 million one has to wonder if that is enough. The Penguins are flirting with the salary cap and can ill afford to pay anywhere near those dollar amounts for a third line center. At this point I would argue that Max Talbot, another Penguin headed for free agency, is more valuable to the Pens and could give them everything Staal does at a much more affordable price. If you came to me right now and said the Penguins can only keep Talbot or Staal heading into next season I would start asking who the Pens were planning to trade Staal too.

That brings us to the second part of this discussion... did the Penguins make the right move in drafting Jordan Staal? For the sake of simplicity I will only consider the eight players taken after Staal in 2006 who rounded out the top 10 picks. Here are some of the guys the Pens could have nabbed instead of Staal:

• Jonathan Toews - Toews does not even have a full season worth of NHL experience, but he has already been named the Captain of the Blackhawks and is (along with Patrick Kane) the face of the franchise. For the record, Toews has one fewer goal than Staal so far this season... zero.
  
• Nicklas Backstrom - Another player with a grand total of zero goals so far this season, Backstrom had an outstanding rookie season with 69 points in 82 games, yet he is probably best known for a goal he scored for the opposition. Very much a playmaker, Backstrom wouldn't add anything that the Pens don't already have.
  
• Phil Kessel - Kessel has had a turbulent start to his pro career, but he is quietly developing into a top notch goal scorer. He only has 37 goals in 164 career games, but he also has 7 goals already this season in just 12 games. Kessel was also strong for the Bruins in the playoffs last April.
  
• Derick Brassard - Brassard has just 28 NHL contests to his name, but he has 11 points through Columbus' first 11 games this season and is the team leader in scoring. He was also just named the Rookie of the Month in the NHL for October. Brassard may yet prove to be the jewel of the 2006 draft.
  
• Kyle Okposo - Okposo is another player just getting his feet wet in the NHL, but it has been so far so good for the Islanders prospect. 8 points in 20 games is a decent start for Okposo as he should be the centerpiece of the Islanders rebuilding process.
  
• Peter Mueller - Peter Mueller is a player I really like a lot. He got off to a blazing start last season and then hit the wall a bit in the second half, but he still finished with 54 points. Mueller is off to another solid start in 2008-09 and he should be a cornerstone of the Phoenix attack for many years to come.
  

As of right now I think a lot of Penguins fans would be happy to swap Jordan Staal for Phil Kessel. I think Kessel would be a nice compliment to Sidney Crosby and could realistically be a consistent 40-goal scorer riding shotgun with Sid. Most of the other guys on that list are scoring centers, something the Penguins are not really in need of. Toews may just be the best player of the six and could excel on the wing in Pittsburgh, but I would still take Kessel who is much more of a pure goal scorer than the others.

I want to close this out by saying that I am a big Jordan Staal fan (and I have the Staal jersey tee to prove it) and would love nothing more to see him blossom into a regular 40-goal scoring left winger for the Penguins. With that on the table I understand that this is the salary cap era and the Penguins are not in the position to be throwing around $5 million contracts to anyone who asks for one. Just ask Ryan Malone. I know that Ray Shero has an exact amount in his mind that he thinks Jordan Staal is worth to his Penguins team. If Jordan Staal's offensive output does not increase then I think the gap between that number and the one Staal's agent will be asking for in July will be too much for Shero, and that could pave the way for a Staal trade in February. I for one hope it never comes to that.

Breaking Down The 08-09 Pittsburgh Penguins Schedule

The NHL released the full 2008-09 regular season schedule today (view it here). This is probably a little more exciting than it should be, but it is always fun to look at the schedule for the upcoming season and try to find the key points. So I'll get right to it!

October

• 4th/5th vs. Ottawa - The Pens open up the season with two games against the Senators in Sweden. Hopefully the travel will not be as big of a pain off of the ice as ex-Penguin Jarkko Ruutu is sure to be on it.
• 11th vs. New Jersey - The Pens return to the States to raise their Eastern Conference championship banner and take on the Devils. On paper this is a game the Pens should win, but crossing "The Pond" may have an impact on that.
• 14th vs. Philadelphia - The second home game of the year sees the Flyers come to town. They will surely be looking for payback for the Eastern Conference Finals and will undoubtedly be looking to take it to the Pens physically. This is where Eric Godard starts earning his pay.
• 16th vs. Washington - Continuing a high profile start to the season, the Penguins will welcome the Capitals to town for the next chapter in the Crosby/Malkin/Ovechkin saga.
  

November

• 8th @ Islanders - Satan and Fedotenko return to the Island for the first time since becoming Penguins. Hopefully this will help get the team up emotionally for...
  
• 11th @ Detroit - The boys head back to Detroit to take on the Red Wings in a Stanley Cup Finals rematch. I'm guessing Marian Hossa will be mentioned once or twice leading up to this one.
  

December

• 23rd vs. Tampa Bay - As an early Christmas present, the Penguins get half of their team "back" as Ryan Malone, Mark Recchi, Adam Hall, Michel Oulette, and Gary Roberts come calling. All those familiar faces should make for an interesting night at the Igloo.
• 27th vs. Montreal - BGL returns to Pittsburgh for the first time. Is a showdown with Godard inevitable?
  

January

• The Pens won't play the Rangers eight times in January, it will just feel like it.
• The schedule is really packed this month to account for the All-Star Game being dropped in.
  

February

• 8th vs. Detroit - The second half of the Finals rematch. I hope Hossa is ready to receive the Jagr treatment from the Igloo faithful.
• 27th @ Chicago - Two of the NHL's best young teams play for the only time this season. Should be a very entertaining game.
  

March

• 1st @ Dallas - Not terribly noteworthy except for the fact that I will be there. The first official TOFTT road trip is on the calendar!
• 14th vs. Ottawa - The Senators' only visit to Pittsburgh this season (thanks to the Sweden games). Will the fans be booing or Ruuing?
  

April

• 9th vs. Islanders - The regular season home finale should be a slam dunk as the Islanders will most likely be resembling a junior team by this point in the year. That being said, those kids will be hungry and fighting for roster spots in 2009-10.
• 11th @ Montreal - The last game of the regular season could either have a big impact on playoff seeding or be totally meaningless. I'm guessing it will be the second option.

Inside the Numbers:

• The Penguins will play on back-to-back days 13 times this season.
• The longest homestand will be eight games long, and late in the season to boot.
• The longest road trip will be five games long, but take them no further from home then Dallas.

All in all the new schedule looks solid enough. It will be nice to not be playing the Devils or Islanders seemingly every other night. You could argue that the Pens got the short end of the "at large" stick by having to play two of the best teams in the Western Conference (Detroit and San Jose) twice each, but it is worth it to make sure Benedict Hossa has to come to Pittsburgh. My biggest concern is that the travel associated with the Sweden games could see the boys get off to another slow start this year. Let's drop the puck already!

Let The Impulse Buying Commence!

Well, the Tampa Bay Lightning just couldn't wait until July 1st to start signing free agents. After acquiring the negotiating rights to Ryan Malone and Gary Roberts over the weekend, they followed through and signed them both this morning. To his credit, Penguins GM Ray Shero just got the team a 2009 third-round draft pick in exchange for two players he was never going to bring back anyway. It's the little things...

So the Lightning are now on the hook for $31.5 million to Ryan Malone over the next 7 years. I'm sure this will be a heavily discussed topic this offseason, but you can put me in with the people who think this is too much money for Malone. If that is the kind of money it was going to take to keep Malone, then I think Shero made the right move in letting him walk, regardless of the other contracts he is dealing with. $4.5 million per season is too much to pay a guy who has as many 30-goal seasons in the NHL as I do (yes, that is none).

Tampa did do one thing right with the Malone contract though. By heavily front loading the deal, it will be easy to part ways with Malone in a couple years if necessary. With almost half of the total payout coming Malone's way in the next two seasons, it will be much easier for the Lightning to either trade, waive, or buyout Malone after the 2009-10 season if they need to. Of course if the salary cap continues to go up this contract might not look so bad by then. It is also nice to see that the whole "Sign with us and we'll give your dad a job" trick isn't just for college football any more.

All in all I am not going to totally hammer the Lightning for this signing. I think they did the best they could with the numbers involved and clearly the new owners are committed to turning this team around in a hurry. That being said, I am happy the Penguins are not the ones on the hook for Malone's new contract. I do like the Roberts signing for Tampa. He will be a good presence in their locker room and they were (again) smart with the way they structured the contract. I do think it is interesting that there is already talk of having to move Dan Boyle as a result of these contracts. Maybe Koules and Barrie should have looked over the financial paperwork a little more before whipping out the checkbook this off-season.

All Is Right In The Eastern Conference

The universe has finally righted itself and after a brisk 14 games the Pittsburgh Penguins have taken back their rightful spot atop the Eastern Conference. I have to say that the path the Pens took to the top of the East could not have been sweeter either. Let's reflect for just a second...

• Round 1 - Annihilating the Ottawa Senators in 4 games and getting revenge on the team that took them out behind the proverbial woodshed in last season's playoffs.
• Round 2 - Dispatching Jaromir Jagr and the rest of the Penguins alumni squad that not calls themselves the New York Rangers.
• Round 3 - Eliminating the rival Flyers in near perfect fashion, culminating in the 6-0 series clincher on home ice.

Back on top, where they belong!

Not looking past the fact that there is still one more round to go, I can't resist the opportunity to look back on what was a dominating romp through the East for the Penguins. Here are a few of my observations on the first 3 rounds:

• The Flyers and their fans can make all the injury excuses they want, but except for the 3 goals the refs gift-wrapped for them in the first period of game 4, they were never in their series against the Pens. It was not nearly as close as the 4-1 result would lead you to believe.
• Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin get most of the press, but Marc-Andre Fleury and Sergei Gonchar have been the Penguins two most consistent and arguably best performers this post-season.
• Jordan Staal has gotten better and better as the Pens have gotten deeper into the playoffs. Anyone who would complain about his drop in scoring during the regular season just does not get what hockey is about.
• Where have all the people bashing the Pascal Dupuis Marian Hossa trade gone?
• Ryan Malone and Marc-Andre Fleury have both made themselves a fortune in the last six weeks.
• Every single player on the Penguins has performed their role perfectly. Knowledgeable hockey people realize how valuable guys like Tyler Kennedy and Max Talbot have been in Pittsburgh's run to the Finals.

Well, the Red Wings just (finally) finished off the Stars. So now we know who our new enemy is. Nothing in the world could make me happier than to see the Pens beat the Wings in the Finals. Nothing. This is going to be unreal. The ghosts of '96 have been exorcised! Strap in Pens fans, there's four more miles to go to the promised land!

07-08 NHL Regular Season Awards And Recap

With the playoffs underway I thought I would take one last look back at the regular season that was, and hand out a few awards along the way. So without further delay...

MVP - Evgeni Malkin (PIT) - Most people out there are all too eager to hand the MVP award to Alex Ovechkin this season, but I'm not buying in to that argument. Malkin is the guy for me. Geno is the total package for the Penguins. He is nearly impossible to knock off the puck, is a juggernaut through the neutral zone, and is very underrated in the defensive end. Malkin is also much more of a playmaker and makes those around him much better, just ask Ryan Malone and Petr Sykora (see below). On top of all of this, Malkin finished just 6 points behind Ovechkin in the scoring race and never went more than 2 games without a point over the entire season. All of that adds up to NHL MVP in my book.
Runner-up - Jarome Iginla (CGY)

Defenseman of the Year - Dion Phaneuf (CGY) - Dion Phaneuf had offensive numbers similar to many of the other top defensemen in the NHL this season. What gives him the edge here is the level of physicality Phaneuf brings to the ice on a nightly basis. Phaneuf is well on his way to being the top blue liner in the NHL for years to come and should start building a nice sized Norris trophy collection real soon.
Runner-up - Sergei Gonchar (PIT)

Goalie of the Year - Evgeni Nabokov (SJ) - Evgeni Nabokov was handed the starting role in San Jose when the Sharks traded Vesa Toskala to Toronto and he did not disappoint. Nabokov started an astounding 77 games and led the league in wins with 46 and tied for third in Goals Against. Those numbers are especially strong when you consider that Nabokov played with little margin for error as the Sharks were so bad offensively for most of the season. To put this in perspective a bit, in only 3 of Nabokov's losses did the Sharks manage to give him more than 2 goals to work with.
Runner-up - Martin Brodeur (NJ)

Rookie of the Year - Carey Price (MON) - There was another strong class of rookies in the NHL this season, but none had more of a positive impact on their team than Carey Price. Price was dropped right into the proverbial fire in Montreal and only had the pressure on his shoulders increase when the Habs traded veteran Cristobal Huet to Washington at the deadline. All Price did to respond was lead the Canadiens to the top of the Eastern Conference. By comparison, highly touted rookies Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews could not even get the Blackhawks into the playoffs.
Runners-up - Peter Mueller (PHX) and Tobias Enstrom (ATL)

Coach of the Year - Joel Quenneville (COL) - Few coaches had as much to deal with this season as Joel Quenneville did for the Avalanche. Expectations were high for the Avalanche after they made a big splash in the free agent market during the offseason. Things went downhill pretty quickly for the Avs thanks to a rash of injuries, but Quenneville kept hope alive in Colorado until they could get healthy. On top of that Quenneville had to handle inconsistent goaltending for much of the season and mixing in some new (yet familiar) faces at the trade deadline. Quenneville overcame all of these challenges and more while leading the Avalanche to the 6th seed in the Western Conference. Quite a performance from the very underrated head coach.
Runner-up - Barry Trotz (NSH)

Line of the Year - Malone/Malkin/Sykora (PIT) - Michel Therrien put this line together full time after Sidney Crosby went down with a high ankle sprain and the results were as impressive as they were instant. The "Syko MaMa" line was a dominant force in the NHL in 2008 as all three players tormented opposing defenses with their combination of skill and power.
Runner-up - Heatley/Spezza/Alfredsson (OTT)

Goal of the Year -


Fight of the Year -

The Best & Worst Case Scenarios For The Penguins

As we have all heard by now, the Penguins lost captain and star center Sidney Crosby for the foreseeable future due to the dreaded high ankle sprain. Sid was tied for the NHL scoring lead entering the game and will obviously be missed by the Pens. Early indications were that Sid could be back in four weeks, but after some tests were done today the only conclusion was that more tests are needed. After watching how slowly things have gone with Penguins netminder Marc-Andre Fleury I'll be happy if Sid is back in six weeks.

Ron Francis would have shaken it off! j/k

So where do the Penguins go from here? They are still tied with the Devils for the lead in the Atlantic Division, but this division has been so tough this year that they are only six points ahead of the last place Rangers entering today's games. The Penguins have more than their share of injury troubles right now, but they still have enough talent to stay in the thick of things until Crosby returns. There are a lot of different ways things could go for Pittsburgh as the season winds down. Here are the best and worst case scenarios:

Best Case Scenario:
If the Mellon Arena roof opens and the Hockey Gods smile upon the Pittsburgh Penguins, the following things will take place:

• Sidney Crosby will be out only four weeks and return to the Penguins lineup refreshed and ready to carry the team through a deep playoff run this Spring.
• Marc-Andre Fleury will return form his high ankle sprain by mid-February and regain the form he was showing before the injury when he was playing his best hockey of the season.
• Gary Roberts will return form his broken leg on schedule and rested.
• Evgeni Malkin will thrive in the absence of Crosby, playing like the franchise center he was always intended to be before Sid was drafted, and maintain that high level of play even after Sid returns from injury.
• Conk keeps on being Conk and helps the Pens maintain their lead in the Atlantic.
• Jordan Staal awakens from his slumber and regains the scoring touch (and luck) he displayed during his rookie campaign.
• Petr Sykora goes on one of his hot streaks and helps fill the scoring void left by Sid.
• With the brass of a riverboat gambler, Ray Shero brings in some added scoring punch at the trade deadline.
• Tyler Kennedy continues to develop and provide timely scoring for the Penguins.
• Colby Armstrong and Ryan Malone find a way to score consistently without Sid on the ice with them.
• The Penguins defense tightens up like a dad on prom night.

If all these things happen (yes that's a huge if, but like I said this is the best case scenario), then everything will be in place for the Pens to make a deep run into the playoffs and possibly all the way to the Finals. If the Pens can catch a few breaks and stay in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race, there's no reason why this time off for their injured players couldn't prove to be a blessing in the long run. But then again...

Worst Case Scenario:
For every silver lining there's a cloud. Let's take a look at what might transpire if Sid's ankle injury turns out to be the iceberg to the Penguins' Titanic of a season. After all, the following things could happen:

• Sid misses eight weeks or more and the Pens are out of the playoff hunt by the time he returns.
• Marc-Andre Fleury makes it back around the same time Sid does.
• Gary Roberts just isn't the same after his eventual return to the ice. Not that he was filling the net before he broke his leg.
• Jordan Staal keeps producing the way he has been all season. If you can call it production.
• Conk goes back to being Ty Conklin.
• Malkin folds under the pressure of carrying the team offensively and is a shadow of his previous self.
• None of the depth players pick up any of the scoring slack.
• The Penguins defense puts too much pressure on themselves to ease the burden on the forwards and buckles.
• The rest of the Atlantic Division runs roughshod over the depleted Penguins and drops them to the bottom of the standings.

As great as the best case scenario would be, the above events could just as easily happen and this season could quickly become one to forget for the Penguins. This could be a season remembered by Penguins fans with one phrase... high ankle sprain.

I'm optimistic that the Penguins will keep things going well enough to stay afloat until Sid returns, assuming that happens around the six week mark I mentioned before. If Sid's injury drags out the way MAF's has then the Penguins could be in real trouble. Hopefully the rest will agree with Sid and he can come back for the playoffs with something to prove and help get the Pens at least to the Eastern Conference Finals.

The biggest thing for the Penguins to be successful is that they need to replace Sid's production as a team and not look to one guy to do it. Yes Geno will be looked to the most, but the Pens will also need more from guys like Staal, Malone, Sykora, Armstrong, Ruutu, and Christensen. It is going to take a complete team effort for the Penguins to keep up their recent winning ways, but there's no reason at all to think they can't do it. I'm sure there are more than a couple guys in that locker room eager and able to fight for a spot in that spotlight that was attached to Crosby.

The bottom line is that if winning the Cup was easy, we wouldn't have to sit around and listen to Mats Sundin trade rumors all Winter. The Pens need to pull it together and get after it as a team. And this is one fan who thinks they can.

Fantasy Focus: These Flightless Birds Could Soar

Welcome to my first installment of Fantasy Focus. These won't be regular posts more than likely, but I will chime in from time to time with advice I think will help those of you trying to improve your fantasy hockey teams. Hopefully this won't come back to bite me in any of my leagues. Anyway, away we go...

Worth a gamble:

- Colby Armstrong (RW - PIT) Colby has proven in the past that he can put up big numbers when paired with Sidney Crosby. So guess where he has found himself the last two games... He likely won't see time on the power play, and Michel Therrien's line combinations are as consistent as New Jersey Devils attendance, but if Army sticks with Sid the points should be there. As the goal and two assists in the last two games show.

- Ryan Malone (LW - PIT) What I said above applies here too, but Malone seems to be pretty firmly attached to Crosby's left hip at this point and his recent play has done nothing to suggest that will change soon. Ryan has four points in the last two games, and assuming he stays with Sid and the Pens continue their recent turnaround, he should be good for about a point a game. Ryan's also good for some PIMs too, which gives him added value.

PIMs count too:

- Daniel Carcillo (LW - PHX) People often overlook PIMs in fantasy hockey, but they can be a difference maker. Carcillo is a great source for PIMs and he will actually give you some offense too as he continues to get quality minutes with a less than talent laden Coyotes squad. Carcillo has 179 PIMs in 39 career games and has also chipped in 11 points in 21 games this season. Pick up the poor man's Sean Avery if you still can... he may be the final piece to your championship team.

Blueline help:

- Tobias Enstrom (ATL) Enstrom has come out of nowhere to become Atlanta's top blueliner and throw his name into the Calder discussion. Since cracking the Thrasher lineup Enstrom has 13 points in 23 games (including 9 on the power play) and is a strong +6 while leading all Thrasher players in power play minutes and total minutes. His size could prove to be an issue, but this kid should be owned in every league.

- Erik Johnson (STL) This hulking rookie has been playing well since returning from a foot injury and is worth a look. He's drawn comparisons to his landlord Al MacInnis and could prove to be a good source of power play points. Definitely give the kid a look if you are saddled with some struggline defenders (i.e. Rob Blake).

- Kris Letang (PIT) Letang has taken over Ryan Whitney's left point on the Penguins' top power play unit, and if he stays there points are a given. Letang has definite offensive ability, but young defensemen are nothing if inconsistent. Still, most of you probably have a defender not really producing much for you so Letang's upside is probably worth the gamble at this point.

Crease upgrade:

- Mike Smith (DAL) There's something of a goalie controversy brewing in Dallas thanks to the recent play of Smith. Smith has seen a big increase in minutes on the strength of allowing only 4 goals in his last 4 starts, including stopping 39 of 41 shots against in a road win against the Rangers this afternoon. Smith is probably still available in most leagues and could definitely prove useful to a team struggling between the pipes.

Buy low:

- Marc-Andre Fleury (G - PIT) MAF's struggles this season have been well chronicled to put it mildly, but the Pens seem to be turning the corner on this season and getting back to their winning ways. MAF will still probably turn in the occasional stinker (see Thanksgiving in Ottawa), but if the team can continue to improve The Flower's numbers will too and he'll definitely help you in the win column. He may be a free agent in some leagues, and if he's not he can probably still be acquired relatively cheaply.

- Ryan Whitney (D - PIT) A notorious slow starter, Whitney has struggled out of the gate this season and has now been taken off of Pittsburgh's top power play unit. How long that will last is anyone's guess, but Ryan's goal against Atlanta Saturday night may get him going and he will still get his share of minutes with the man advantage. Send his owner a bit of a lowball offer and see what you can do, you'll be thanking me in January (if not sooner).