2009 Conference Finals Predictions

A day late again, and I am feeling not so good about my Western Conference pick after watching yesterday's game, but in the spirit of honesty...

Eastern Conference

• (4) Pittsburgh over (6) Carolina in 5

Western Conference

• (2) Detroit over (4) Chicago in 7
  

2009 Second Round Predictions

Okay, I am sort of a day late with these... so sue me! Here are my picks for the second round:

Eastern Conference

• (6)Carolina over (1)Boston in 7
• (4)Pittsburgh over (2)Washington in 6

Western Conference

• (8)Anaheim over (2)Detroit in 6
• (3)Vancouver over (4) Chicago in 7
  

The 08-09 NHL Prediction Experience

It is the first of October, and that means the start of the 2008-09 NHL regular season is just a few short days away. Like any respectable hockey blogger, I need to chime in with my predictions for the season to come, so without further ado...

• Pacific Division Champ: Dallas Stars - This is going to be a tight division as the Stars, Ducks, and Sharks are all built to win now. While I really like the Ducks' chances this season, I really like what is going on in Dallas and I think they will eek out a division title.
  
• Northwest Division Champ: Calgary Flames - This division is down right now. I think the Wild and Avalanche have regressed a bit, the Oilers are still a year or two away, and the Canucks just are not that good. That leaves Jarome Iginla and the Flames to come out on top. Iginla should get serious Hart consideration again this season.
  
• Central Division Champ: Detroit Red Wings - I hate picking them to win, but there is not another team in their division strong enough to challenge them this season. Maybe next year Blackhawks fans.
  
• Southeast Division Champ: Carolina Hurricanes - This was a tough one to call for me at first. After giving it some thought though I think Carolina comes out on top. I think the Capitals will regress a little bit under raised expectations and there just isn't enough defense/goaltending in Tampa for me to pick them. I think the Hurricanes will take advantage of being able to fly under the radar for a bit and claim the 3 seed in the East.
  
• Northeast Division Champ: Ottawa Senators - Everyone and their mother is picking the Canadiens to run wild over the rest of the Eastern Conference this season, but I just don't see it. For some reason I can not explain I think the Sens are going to make one more go of it before their Stanley Cup winning window officially closes for a couple years.
  
• Atlantic Division Champ: Philadelphia Flyers - The Flyers are getting their franchise back on track and look to benefit from some addition via subtraction thanks to Derian Hatcher's injury status. I think this will be the most competitive division in hockey (again) this year, and I see the Flyers ending up on top. I think the Rangers will get off to a bit of a slow start as all of their new faces start to gel, and I think the Penguins will hit too many bumps in the road to win the division. Between the Europe trip and their injuries on defense I think the Pens will be hampered enough that they will have to settle for the fourth or fifth seed in the East.
  
• Hart Trophy Winner (MVP): Sidney Crosby - You will get some argument over this, but I think Sid proved last Spring that he is the best player in the game today. I think the defeat in the Finals will drive Crosby to take his game to another level, something that I am sure is a scary thought for the rest of the NHL. I think the Penguins as a team will have their struggles this season, but I do not expect many for their captain.
  
• Vezina Trophy Winner (Top Goalie): Henrik Lundqvist - I think this will be the year King Henrik breaks through and takes his first Vezina. I expect the Devils to drop off enough to deal a blow to Brodeur's chances. Then again, if Marty can get this year's Devils squad back to the post-season he may be deserving of some more hardware. Hopefully this is the year Marc-Andre Fleury gets his name into the Vezina discussion.
  
• Norris Trophy Winner (Top Defender): Dion Phaneuf - Much like Lundqvist with the Vezina, I think this will be the year Phaneuf breaks Nicklas Lidstrom's hold on the Norris trophy and starts a run of his own. Phaneuf is arguably the best all-around blue liner in the game and he should be a regular Norris finalist for the next ten seasons.
  
• Adams Trophy Winner (Top Coach): Dave Tippett - I already said I expect big things from the Stars and that should translate into some honors for their coach. Hopefully this award will go to a coach who gets continued excellence from his team all season long and not someone who squeaks into the playoffs with a team nobody expected a lot from.
  
• Art Ross Trophy Winner (Most Points): Sidney Crosby- As long as Sid stays healthy this one is a slam dunk. When the game's most gifted offensive player is also its hardest worker you have a recipe for scoring titles.
• Richard Trophy Winner (Most Goals): Dany Heatley - I went back and forth between Heatley and Iginla on this one, but finally settled on Heatley. I think Dany has the edge because he has better talent around him, like center Jason Spezza, and he will face more teams with bad defenses in the Eastern Conference (see Toronto and the entire Southeast Division as a reference). If Ilya Kovalchuk can stay interested for a full season in Atlanta he coule walk away with the Richard easily.
  
• Stanley Cup Finals: Dallas Stars v Pittsburgh Penguins - Only Detroit stood in the way of this dream matchup (as a Penguins fan withing driving distance of Dallas) last season, but I think I might just get my wish this time around. A lot can change between now and then (especially if someone like Marian Gaborik gets moved), but for now I'm taking this Finals matchup with the Pens skating the Cup on home ice with a six game series victory.

That's all for me from now. There's not much else to do except wait for the puck to drop in Prague and for Yahoo Fantasy to put Sergei Gonchar and Ryan Whitney on IR (more on that later). So for the time being I guess I'll just sit back and wait for all the Caps, Habs, Sharks, and whoever else fans to tell me how stupid I am in the comments section. Game on!

Southeast Division 2008 Free Agency Preview

It's time to kick of week two of my free agency extravaganza! We now find ourselves in the friendly confines of the Eastern Conference, and the Southeast Division to be exact. It is hard not to think of the Southeast as the worst division in the NHL, but that could lead to a lot of activity this off-season. The good news for most of these teams is that it shouldn't be too tough to upgrade their rosters through free agency.

Atlanta Thrashers

Pending UFA's:

• Bobby Holik ($4,250,000)
• Mark Recchi ($1,750,000)
• Steve McCarthy ($725,000)
• Mark Popovic ($535,000)
  
• Eric Boulton ($525,000)
  

Pending RFA's:

• Kari Lehtonen ($2,200,000)
  

Cap $$$ Committed: $26.9 million
Notes: The Thrashers could be real players in the free agent market. They have plenty of cap space and no noteworthy free agents with the exception of Lehtonen. They also don't have any high end players entering contract years. They figure to be major players in the Marian Hossa sweepstakes if he does not re-sign in Pittsburgh. In reality, the biggest challenge the Thrashers will probably face will be convincing top flight players to come to Atlanta. This team could revamp their roster this season, or they could struggle just to hit the cap minimum. Atlanta should definitely be one of the more interesting teams to watch this off-season.

Carolina Hurricanes

Pending UFA's:

• Brett Hedican ($2,432,000)
• Trevor Letowski ($800,000)
• Wade Brookbank ($500,000)
• Keith Aucoin ($475,000)
• Ryan Bayda ($475,000)
  

Pending RFA's:

• Tuomo Ruutu ($2,250,000)
• Tim Gleason ($1,175,000)
• Dennis Seidenberg ($850,000)
• Tim Conboy ($550,000)
• Chad Larose ($500,000)
  

Cap $$$ Committed: $39.8 million
Notes: The Hurricanes do not have many holes to fill in their roster this off-season. They do have a little cap room to work with, but Erik Cole and Eric Staal are both entering the final years of their contracts so the Hurricanes brass will need to keep that in mind when planning their spending. Especially when you consider that Staal could easily command $8-$9 million from another team if they were to sign him to an offer sheet. The biggest move the Hurricanes make this off-season should be to sign Staal to a long extension to keep their franchise player in place for many years to come.

Florida Panthers

Pending UFA's:

• Branislav Mezei ($850,000)
• Steve Montador ($800,000)
• Magnus Johansson ($700,000)
• Wade Belak ($625,000)
• Jassen Cullimore ($535,000)
  

Pending RFA's:

• Jay Bouwmeester ($2,250,000)
• Rostislav Olesz ($984,000)
• Greg Campbell ($525,000)
• Kamil Kreps ($495,000)
  

Cap $$$ Committed: $37.4 million
Notes: The Florida Panthers have quite a few above average contracts for such a mediocre team. They could move Olli Jokinen to give themselves some more cap flexibility, but their top priority needs to be locking up Jay Bouwmeester to a long-term contract. Bouwmeester is one of the top young defenders in the NHL and he could realistically get a big offer sheet from another team. The Panthers would almost have to match if that happened, and that could throw their salary structure out of whack for years to come.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Pending UFA's:

• Chris Gratton ($1,500,000)
• Andre Roy ($1,000,000)
  
• Andreas Karlsson ($500,000)
• Craig MacDonald ($500,000)
• Junior Lessard ($500,000)
  
• Mathieu Darche ($475,000)
• Doug Janik ($475,000)
  

Pending RFA's:

• Craig Ryan ($850,000)
• Alexandre Picard ($500,000)
  
• Karl Stewart ($475,000)
  

Cap $$$ Committed: $35.4 million
Notes: Before Tampa Bay does anything else this summer, they need to figure out what they are going to do with Vincent Lecavalier. If they are going to keep him, they need to sign him to an extension before the season starts and get it over with. If they are going to trade him, his value will only go down the longer they hang onto him. Once that issue is settled the Lightning can move forward with their plan for rebuilding their team. Assuming they have one, which may be a big assumption.

Washington Capitals

Pending UFA's:

• Sergei Fedorov ($6,080,000)
• Olaf Kolzig ($5,450,000)
• Cristobal Huet ($2,750,000)
  
• Matt Cooke ($1,525,000)
• Quintin Laing ($475,000)
  

Pending RFA's:

• Steve Eminger ($1,000,000)
• Shaone Morrisonn ($900,000)
• Mike Green ($850,000)
• Eric Fehr ($800,000)
• Brooks Laich ($725,000)
• Boyd Gordon ($650,000)

Cap $$$ Committed: $35.8 million
Notes: The Capitals are in pretty good shape right now as most of their roster players are under contract for at least another year. They should also be able to bring Sergei Fedorov back at a fraction of last season's salary. The two big issues for the Capitals are Mike Green and in goal. Mike Green is the best young defenseman in the NHL for my money and the Caps need to lock him up for the long term. Losing Green to another team, or even letting another club sign him to an big offer sheet could cause a big setback in the development of this promising young club. Cristobal Huet will most likely be back between the pipes for the Capitals, but I wouldn't blame them for taking a run at Pascal Leclaire or Dan Ellis first as either one of them is a better long term option than Huet.

The Hurricanes Run Up The White Flag

The Hurricanes and Senators pulled off a pretty big trade this week as Carolina sent Cory Stillman and Mike Commodore to Ottawa for Joe Corvo and Patrick Eaves. The trade can be viewed as a good one for both sides in some regards, but I think it sends a signal that the Hurricanes have given up on this season and have started planning for the future.

Let's look at the trade from the Senators' point of view first. This is a really good trade for the Sens. They brought in a veteran scorer in Stillman who has plenty of playoff experience (Cups in Tampa and Carolina), and a physical defenseman in Commodore who was also on Carolina's Cup winning team. Both Stillman and Commodore are also UFA's this summer so the Sens could conceivably let them both walk to free up some cap space in a desperate attempt to re-sign Wade Redden. That is assuming they don't trade him before the deadline. The bottom line for Ottawa is that they got deeper and tougher and have reestablished themselves as the favorite in the Eastern Conference.

And then there's the Hurricanes... I have been hearing for months that the 'Canes were shopping for a quarterback for their power play. That's what they got in Corvo, but I don't think that was what they really needed. Carolina is atrocious defensively and they just traded away arguably their best defensive defenseman. Patrick Eaves could prove to be a solid acquisition, but players like him are a dime a dozen. Carolina basically traded away to pending UFA's for a couple guys who are still under contract for a couple years, and as a result demolished their dwindling hopes of making a successful playoff run.

That's not to say this move was necessarily a bad one for Carolina. It could work out for them in the long run. Especially if Corvo can be the presence on the power play that Carolina apparently thinks he can be. I also wouldn't be shocked if Commodore returned to the Hurricanes in the off season via free agency. That would also tip the deal in favor of Carolina over the long term.

Ultimately this trade will be judged in completely opposite ways for each team. If Ottawa can win the Cup this year then the trade will be viewed as a success. If they don't it still won't be that bad of a deal because they really didn't give up all that much. This trade can't really be evaluated from a Carolina perspective until a year or two from now. If Corvo and Eaves pan out then it was a good deal for them. If not, and they fail to make the playoffs this season, it could end up being a real stinker.

So what is my personal take on this deal? I hate it! First off it helps the Senators, which is never a good thing as far as I am concerned. Second, it pretty much shows that Carolina has given up on this season, which doesn't make me happy. For one thing, I had picked them before the season to make it to the Finals from the Eastern Conference. There's pretty much no way that happens now. If they didn't play in such a weak division they probably wouldn't even challenge for a playoff spot. Also, I think if they had made a move to bring in some better defensive players that they still could have been a force in the East this season. They could still win the Southeast Division and go into the playoffs as a #3 seed. If they could find a way to get back to playing the way they were at the start of the season they could have definitely made it out of the East. As things stand now, they may be on the outside looking in come playoff time. I hope getting Joe Corvo was worth it Hurricanes fans.