The 08-09 NHL Prediction Experience

It is the first of October, and that means the start of the 2008-09 NHL regular season is just a few short days away. Like any respectable hockey blogger, I need to chime in with my predictions for the season to come, so without further ado...

• Pacific Division Champ: Dallas Stars - This is going to be a tight division as the Stars, Ducks, and Sharks are all built to win now. While I really like the Ducks' chances this season, I really like what is going on in Dallas and I think they will eek out a division title.
  
• Northwest Division Champ: Calgary Flames - This division is down right now. I think the Wild and Avalanche have regressed a bit, the Oilers are still a year or two away, and the Canucks just are not that good. That leaves Jarome Iginla and the Flames to come out on top. Iginla should get serious Hart consideration again this season.
  
• Central Division Champ: Detroit Red Wings - I hate picking them to win, but there is not another team in their division strong enough to challenge them this season. Maybe next year Blackhawks fans.
  
• Southeast Division Champ: Carolina Hurricanes - This was a tough one to call for me at first. After giving it some thought though I think Carolina comes out on top. I think the Capitals will regress a little bit under raised expectations and there just isn't enough defense/goaltending in Tampa for me to pick them. I think the Hurricanes will take advantage of being able to fly under the radar for a bit and claim the 3 seed in the East.
  
• Northeast Division Champ: Ottawa Senators - Everyone and their mother is picking the Canadiens to run wild over the rest of the Eastern Conference this season, but I just don't see it. For some reason I can not explain I think the Sens are going to make one more go of it before their Stanley Cup winning window officially closes for a couple years.
  
• Atlantic Division Champ: Philadelphia Flyers - The Flyers are getting their franchise back on track and look to benefit from some addition via subtraction thanks to Derian Hatcher's injury status. I think this will be the most competitive division in hockey (again) this year, and I see the Flyers ending up on top. I think the Rangers will get off to a bit of a slow start as all of their new faces start to gel, and I think the Penguins will hit too many bumps in the road to win the division. Between the Europe trip and their injuries on defense I think the Pens will be hampered enough that they will have to settle for the fourth or fifth seed in the East.
  
• Hart Trophy Winner (MVP): Sidney Crosby - You will get some argument over this, but I think Sid proved last Spring that he is the best player in the game today. I think the defeat in the Finals will drive Crosby to take his game to another level, something that I am sure is a scary thought for the rest of the NHL. I think the Penguins as a team will have their struggles this season, but I do not expect many for their captain.
  
• Vezina Trophy Winner (Top Goalie): Henrik Lundqvist - I think this will be the year King Henrik breaks through and takes his first Vezina. I expect the Devils to drop off enough to deal a blow to Brodeur's chances. Then again, if Marty can get this year's Devils squad back to the post-season he may be deserving of some more hardware. Hopefully this is the year Marc-Andre Fleury gets his name into the Vezina discussion.
  
• Norris Trophy Winner (Top Defender): Dion Phaneuf - Much like Lundqvist with the Vezina, I think this will be the year Phaneuf breaks Nicklas Lidstrom's hold on the Norris trophy and starts a run of his own. Phaneuf is arguably the best all-around blue liner in the game and he should be a regular Norris finalist for the next ten seasons.
  
• Adams Trophy Winner (Top Coach): Dave Tippett - I already said I expect big things from the Stars and that should translate into some honors for their coach. Hopefully this award will go to a coach who gets continued excellence from his team all season long and not someone who squeaks into the playoffs with a team nobody expected a lot from.
  
• Art Ross Trophy Winner (Most Points): Sidney Crosby- As long as Sid stays healthy this one is a slam dunk. When the game's most gifted offensive player is also its hardest worker you have a recipe for scoring titles.
• Richard Trophy Winner (Most Goals): Dany Heatley - I went back and forth between Heatley and Iginla on this one, but finally settled on Heatley. I think Dany has the edge because he has better talent around him, like center Jason Spezza, and he will face more teams with bad defenses in the Eastern Conference (see Toronto and the entire Southeast Division as a reference). If Ilya Kovalchuk can stay interested for a full season in Atlanta he coule walk away with the Richard easily.
  
• Stanley Cup Finals: Dallas Stars v Pittsburgh Penguins - Only Detroit stood in the way of this dream matchup (as a Penguins fan withing driving distance of Dallas) last season, but I think I might just get my wish this time around. A lot can change between now and then (especially if someone like Marian Gaborik gets moved), but for now I'm taking this Finals matchup with the Pens skating the Cup on home ice with a six game series victory.

That's all for me from now. There's not much else to do except wait for the puck to drop in Prague and for Yahoo Fantasy to put Sergei Gonchar and Ryan Whitney on IR (more on that later). So for the time being I guess I'll just sit back and wait for all the Caps, Habs, Sharks, and whoever else fans to tell me how stupid I am in the comments section. Game on!

Northeast Division 2008 Free Agency Preview

It is time to turn our attention to the Northeast Division as we look at what July 1st has in store for teams in the NHL. This is always an intriguing division and I don't expect that to change in 2008-09. Between coaching changes, playoff disappointments, and fan expectations every team in the Northeast has something to get fired up about this summer.

Boston Bruins

Pending UFA's:

• Alex Auld ($600,000)
• Glen Metropolit ($500,000)
• Bobby Allen ($500,000)
  

Pending RFA's:

• Petteri Nokelainen ($984,000)
• Mark Stuart ($942,000)
• Dennis Wideman ($600,000)
  

Cap $$$ Committed: $43.5 million
Notes: The Bruins don't have many holes to fill and they will enter next season with more or less the same roster as last season. That could be a good thing or a bad thing depending on who you ask. Getting Patrice Bergeron back should be a big boost for the Bruins. Looking beyond next season, the Bruins need to start coming up with a long term plan in net as Manny Fernandez and Tim Thomas are both going into the final years of their contracts.

Buffalo Sabres

Pending UFA's:

• Teppo Numminen ($2,600,000)
• Dmitri Kalinin ($2,250,000)
• Jocelyn Thibault ($760,000)
  
• Nolan Pratt ($550,000)
• Michael Ryan ($475,000)
  

Pending RFA's:

• Steve Bernier ($850,000)
• Paul Gaustad ($750,000)
• Dan Paille ($585,000)
  

Cap $$$ Committed: $37.8 million
Notes: The Sabres have a good group of young, talented forwards to work with, but their blue line is thin and they need to get Ryan Miller signed to a long term deal ASAP. John-Michael Liles would probably make a nice addition to their defensive corps and he could be had for less than what they offered Brian Campbell before they traded him to San Jose.

Montreal Canadiens

Pending UFA's:

• Michael Ryder ($2,950,000)
• Bryan Smolinski ($2,000,000)
• Patrice Brisebois ($700,000)
• Mark Streit ($600,000)
  

Pending RFA's:

• Mikhail Grabovski ($700,000)
• Andrei Kostitsyn ($612,000)
• Ryan O'Byrne ($590,000)
• Jaroslav Halak ($500,000)
  
• Josh Gorges ($495,000)
  

Cap $$$ Committed: $32.5 million
Notes: Michael Ryder is a goner, let's get that out of the way right from the get go. Beyond that, they need to take care of locking up all of their RFA's and they would be wise to take care of Mark Streit as he was a big part of what made their league leading power play tick. They are also rumored to be going after Mats Sundin in a big way, which would only serve to fuel what is already one of the league's nastier rivalries.

Ottawa Senators

Pending UFA's:

• Wade Redden ($6,500,000)
• Martin Lapointe ($2,400,000)
• Cory Stillman ($1,750,000)
• Mike Commodore ($1,300,000)
• Chris Kelly ($1,262,000)
• Shean Donovan ($925,000)
• Randy Robitaille ($625,000)
• Luke Richardson ($500,000)
  

Pending RFA's:

• Antoine Vermette ($1,075,000)
• Andrej Meszaros ($984,000)
• Brian McGrattan ($550,000)
  

Cap $$$ Committed: $28.8 million
Notes: In all likelihood the Ottawa Senators are going to be a very different looking team next season. They have a slew of UFA's and stand to lose most of them. Re-signing Chris Kelly should be a top priority for the Ottawa front office and they would be well served to bring back Stillman and Commodore if they can get them at the right price. Wade Redden is all but gone, but locking up Meszaros could help to ease that loss. Like seemingly every other team in the Northeast (except for the Habs) they need to come up with a plan in goal beyond 2008-09. Ray Emery will likely be bought out at any moment and Martin Gerber is too inconsistent to be a viable long term option for a team with realistic hopes of challenging for the Cup.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Pending UFA's:

• Mats Sundin ($5,500,000)
• Dominic Moore ($700,000)
• John Pohl ($475,000)
  

Pending RFA's:

• Matt Stajan ($950,000)
• Kyle Wellwood ($950,000)
  

Cap $$$ Committed: $38.7 million
Notes: Like the Bruins the Leafs have most of last season's roster under contract, and like the Bruins that may not be great news. The big story will be what happens with Mats Sundin. The Leafs will undoubtedly do all they can to bring him back, but will he reverse his stance of wanting to remain a Leaf and head to Detroit or Montreal? The Leafs also have a lot of good buyout candidates in Darcy Tucker, Andrew Raycroft, and even Bryan McCabe. The Leafs may be forced to take a few steps back this offseason in order to begin the rebuilding process under new coach Ron Wilson.

Reactions to Penguins vs. Senators Game 1

The Pittsburgh Penguins put on quite a display against Ottawa last night at the Igloo to open their first round series. It was quite a game, to the point that I feel compelled to share my thoughts (in no particular order):

• The goal by Gary Roberts 68 seconds in was just what the Pens needed to set the tone for the series right from the get go. They had every reason to believe that this series would be a reversal of last year's five game defeat to Ottawa, but they needed to go out and show it.
• People can say what they want about Marian Hossa, but he played well and the goals will definitely come in time.
• Max Talbot racing to the aid of his goaltender was what hockey (especially playoff hockey) is all about. That may have been the highlight of the night.
• Marc-Andre Fleury looked solid and in complete control. He has really taken his game to another level since his ankle injury. Having said that, I don't recall a single instance where I actually thought the Senators might score. Great defensive effort by the entire team.
• Hats off to the Penguins forecheckers! Guys like Roberts, Talbot, Laraque, Ruutu, Kennedy, and Staal were making life miserable on the Senators defense.
• Like every other Penguins fan, I almost had a heart attack when Sid went crashing into the boards early in the 3rd.
• Ryan Whitney coming to the aid of his captain and giving Wade Redden the beat down of his life made up for every bad play Whitney has made this season. Being a +3 and assisting on Malkin's goal didn't hurt either.
• Evgeni Malkin = BEAST!!!
• The refs did everything they could to keep the Senators in the game, and even that was of no avail to Ottawa.
• This series ended the second Gary Roberts challenged the entire Senators team to a fight and nobody took him up on it. The Senators are the definition of gutless.
• The Bryan Murray taunting will never get old. Whoever put the "Sufferin' Succotash" sign up in the Igloo is my new best friend.
• The Jaws theme is back for the Pens PP. Even the arena staff is on board with the greatness that is this Penguins team.

Game Highlights:


Whitney v Redden:


Roberts v Everyone:

The Hurricanes Run Up The White Flag

The Hurricanes and Senators pulled off a pretty big trade this week as Carolina sent Cory Stillman and Mike Commodore to Ottawa for Joe Corvo and Patrick Eaves. The trade can be viewed as a good one for both sides in some regards, but I think it sends a signal that the Hurricanes have given up on this season and have started planning for the future.

Let's look at the trade from the Senators' point of view first. This is a really good trade for the Sens. They brought in a veteran scorer in Stillman who has plenty of playoff experience (Cups in Tampa and Carolina), and a physical defenseman in Commodore who was also on Carolina's Cup winning team. Both Stillman and Commodore are also UFA's this summer so the Sens could conceivably let them both walk to free up some cap space in a desperate attempt to re-sign Wade Redden. That is assuming they don't trade him before the deadline. The bottom line for Ottawa is that they got deeper and tougher and have reestablished themselves as the favorite in the Eastern Conference.

And then there's the Hurricanes... I have been hearing for months that the 'Canes were shopping for a quarterback for their power play. That's what they got in Corvo, but I don't think that was what they really needed. Carolina is atrocious defensively and they just traded away arguably their best defensive defenseman. Patrick Eaves could prove to be a solid acquisition, but players like him are a dime a dozen. Carolina basically traded away to pending UFA's for a couple guys who are still under contract for a couple years, and as a result demolished their dwindling hopes of making a successful playoff run.

That's not to say this move was necessarily a bad one for Carolina. It could work out for them in the long run. Especially if Corvo can be the presence on the power play that Carolina apparently thinks he can be. I also wouldn't be shocked if Commodore returned to the Hurricanes in the off season via free agency. That would also tip the deal in favor of Carolina over the long term.

Ultimately this trade will be judged in completely opposite ways for each team. If Ottawa can win the Cup this year then the trade will be viewed as a success. If they don't it still won't be that bad of a deal because they really didn't give up all that much. This trade can't really be evaluated from a Carolina perspective until a year or two from now. If Corvo and Eaves pan out then it was a good deal for them. If not, and they fail to make the playoffs this season, it could end up being a real stinker.

So what is my personal take on this deal? I hate it! First off it helps the Senators, which is never a good thing as far as I am concerned. Second, it pretty much shows that Carolina has given up on this season, which doesn't make me happy. For one thing, I had picked them before the season to make it to the Finals from the Eastern Conference. There's pretty much no way that happens now. If they didn't play in such a weak division they probably wouldn't even challenge for a playoff spot. Also, I think if they had made a move to bring in some better defensive players that they still could have been a force in the East this season. They could still win the Southeast Division and go into the playoffs as a #3 seed. If they could find a way to get back to playing the way they were at the start of the season they could have definitely made it out of the East. As things stand now, they may be on the outside looking in come playoff time. I hope getting Joe Corvo was worth it Hurricanes fans.

Who Would Want Ray Emery?

Ray Emery has done it again... for the last time? The Senators netminder was late to a team practice the day after the All-Star game (after spending the All-Star break in Vegas), and the Senators apparently feel that they have had more than enough of Emery's distractions. Senators GM Bryan Murray announced today that Emery will be "fined substantially", and most people around the NHL feel that Emery's time in Ottawa is now all but at an end.

This raises the question, what team(s) would actually be interested in acquiring the embattled netminder? At this point I will mention that I don't think Emery is a very good keeper to begin with, so take that into consideration as you read on. So, how many teams out there would Emery actually be considered an upgrade between the pipes for? For my money, the only teams that really fall into that category are Los Angeles, Tampa Bay, and Washington. Nobody else would be bringing in Emery as a clear cut #1 goalie, but with an annual salary cap hit over $3 million he's getting paid like one.

Let's take a look at the three teams mentioned above and see if it would make sense for them to bring in Emery:

First we'll look at the Lightning. First off, any deal sending Emery to Tampa would almost have to bring Marc Denis to Ottawa in return just to make the cap numbers work. I think Ottawa could probably live with that, but it wouldn't be ideal for them. On the Tampa Bay side of things, they already have Johan Holmqvist and Karri Ramo in net. Holmqvist is wildly inconsistent, but has the ability to be better than Emery on any given night and comes much cheaper (though he will be a UFA at season's end) while the Lightning organization is very high on the 20-year-old Ramo and have pegged him as their franchise goalie of the future. If you take Tampa's current goaltending into account along with their current cap situation, I think we can safely rule them out as a possible destination for Emery.

The Capitals are a more realistic place for Emery to end up. They have plenty of cap space for the next couple seasons and aren't getting any younger in goal. There has been plenty of speculation that this season could be Olaf Kolzig's last and Brent Johnson is not a long-term solution in goal for a young and talented team like the Caps. A Kolzig for Emery swap could make sense for both teams as it would give Ottawa an insurance policy in net heading into the playoffs and Washington would be getting a potential long-term #1 goalie in return. The more I think about it, the more that trade actually makes sense to me, plus seeing the Caps bring in a jerk like Emery would delight me to no end. So it will probably never happen.

Last up, fittingly, are the Kings. On the surface the Kings could definitely use an upgrade between the pipes. Dig a little deeper though and you see that they have 18-year-old prospect Jonathan Bernier waiting in the wings to be their franchise goalie for the next 10+ years. That doesn't mean they couldn't use someone else in case Bernier's development takes longer than expected. If I were Kings GM Dean Lombardi though, I wouldn't even consider bringing in a malcontent like Ray Emery and instead would dial up Kevin Lowe in Edmonton and try to reacquire Matheiu Garon. I would rather have Garon between the pipes anyway, but he also has a much more palatable salary and is more likely to handle giving way to Bernier in a professional manner. I can't see Emery handling that too well. Plus Ray Emery in Los Angeles just seems like a recipe for disaster.

All in all the Senators will be hard pressed to find a taker for Ray Emery (although one can never rule out Kevin Lowe). I can't see many NHL GM's lining up to bring in an overpaid and overrated head case who clearly cares much more about himself than his teammates. If Emery had a slightly better attitude and was making about half as much as he is, then I could see a team willing to take a chance on him. As things stand right now though, Ray Emery is far too big of a risk for any sensible GM to add him to his squad. Don't be surprised if you see Ray Emery on waivers in the coming days. And don't be surprised if he clears waivers. Ottawa may want to be rid of Ray Emery, but that doesn't mean they won't be stuck with him.

A Recipe for Hate

So there I was minding my own business a day or two ago, just looking for some decent soccer news on the internet when I stumble across this:

Club America 1 - 2 Chelsea - SSN
Uploaded by FootballHeaven

My reaction was two-fold. First, I'm setting the over/under for number of games it takes Drogba and Malouda to celebrate a goal by making out at 10. Second, I hate Chelsea. Let me try that again... I really hate Chelsea.

I took some time to internalize that and came to the realization that hate is part of what makes sports so great. Sure it's great to have a team to root for and follow, but it is often just as satisfying to root against a team you hate, especially if the team you like is struggling at the time. How many self-proclaimed baseball fans cheer harder against the Yankees than for the team they like? I have realized that hatred makes up a large portion of my sports persona. The list of teams I like/support is nowhere near the size of the list of teams I hate, and I am totally good with that.

One thing you have to realize when examining this topic is that there are different levels of hatred. For example, there are players you hate until they join your team and then you love them (i.e. Darius Kasparaitis), and then there are players you hate so much that even when they are on your team you still hate them (i.e. Marty McSorley). There are also times when two teams you hate are playing each other and you have to decide who you would rather see win. So even though I hate the Dallas Cowboys, I have no choice to cheer them on to victory when they are playing the 49ers. It can get confusing at times, but the important thing to remember is that part of supporting your team is hating several others. If you don't get that then you aren't a real sports fan.

Now that we have established that hatred is a natural part of following sports, let's take a look at how I spread the hate. Keep in mind that this is more of a greatest hits than an anthology. If I were to write about all the teams and players I hate I would need to take a week off of work. So here goes:

• The Detroit Red Wings: I just had to start the list here. If there was one sports franchise I could go back in time and erase from existence it would be this one. There are only four good things to have ever been associated with the Red Wings; Gordie Howe, Bob Probert, Bob Errey, and Larry Murphy. Anything else that ever touched that franchise I hate. I even hate Little Caesars!
• The New York Islanders: You can not be a Penguins fan over the age of 20 and not hate the Islanders with the fury of a thousand suns. Glenn Healy, Steve Thomas, Ray Ferraro, and David Volek ruined the '90s. That team could sign me and all three of my kids to play for them and I would still hate them.
• Chelsea: Back to the beginning! How can you not hate Chelsea? Jose Mourinho alone is enough to drive you insane. Throw in the attitude and the insane spending and you have possibly the easiest team on the planet to hate. Unless you are directly related to a Chelsea player or you are named Chelsea you have no business supporting this club.
• Kirk Gibson: The bane of every A's fan is watching Gibby hobble around the bases pumping his fists in the '88 World Series. I had the misfortune of having a roommate in college who was not only a lifelong Dodger fan, but also in attendance at that very game. If I never see that highlight again it will be too soon.
• Wayne Gretzky: This could be a whole post on its own. "The Great One" represents everything I can't stand in a hockey player. Spend a thousand years looking and you will never find a softer hockey player. Numbers or not, I could name fifty players off the top of my head who I would rate as "better" than Gretzky. I don't think I could name five who I hate more than him though.
• The San Francisco Giants: This one should be a no-brainer. If you are an A's fan then you hate the Giants, and vice versa. I never could understand the losers who would walk around in those half A's/half Giants hats. That's like wearing a bandanna that's half Crips and half Bloods. You just can't do it! I have to say though, along with the Penguins' two Cups, the A's beating the Giants in '89 is probably the fondest sports memory of my youth.
• Peyton Manning: Seriously, does that guy need to be in every commercial that airs on every channel during football season? Somebody tell Peyton it's okay to say "No" to things every now and then.
• The Ottawa Senators: I never had a problem with the Sens before this year. Funny what a difference one playoff series can make. I now officially hate the Senators. They haven't reached Islander status yet, but I won't be running out to buy a Chris Neil jersey anytime soon either.
  

I could go on forever here. The important thing to remember is that it is okay to hate when it comes to sports. You just have to keep it in perspective is all. I don't wish any actual misfortune on any player. It's not that kind of hate. I just want to see them fail miserably, that's all. That said, if Pavel Datsyuk blows out his knee he probably shouldn't hold his breath waiting for a Get Well Soon card from me.