Meat's Back On The Menu Boys!

Whew, July is finally over. It is amazing, for a month that starts out so busy, what with free agency and all, July really seems to drag on forever. Granted my own laziness factored into the recent lack of activity around these parts the last couple weeks, but it is time to put all of that behind us. It is a new month and there is work to be done. Most likely August will be even quieter than July was for the NHL, but if all goes according to plan things will be in full swing here.

Here is some of what you can look forward to here in the coming weeks:

• I will be using OI% to break down the NHL's leading scorer in each season since 1940 in an attempt to determine which players had the best offensive single seasons in modern NHL history. I will be doing one decade at a time, probably at a pace of two posts per week.
• The Salary Cap Challenge is coming. This year's version will be bigger and better than before. Invites should be going out this weekend and I hope to have the results for you around mid-month.
• With help once again from my friends at WhatIfSports.com I will be taking another trip back in time. This time we will be visiting the Spring of 1996.
• I will have plenty of preview coverage leading up to September's release of NHL 09 from EA Sports.
• I will start to get back into fantasy mode towards the end of the month and should have plenty of fantasy hockey coverage for you between here and my new second home over at Going Five Hole.

This is just some of what I have lined up to get us through August and to the start of training camps. The off-season is far from over, but I plan on making the best of the remaining time until pucks start dropping again.

Looking Back To Look Ahead

It's housekeeping time here at TOFTT. I have a few items to discuss as I ramp up for what I hope will be a busy, entertaining, and insightful off-season. First of all, I published my last article for RotoTimes.com, which you can read here, this week. My contract is now at an end for them, but hopefully I'll be able to work something out so that I can continue writing for them in the future. I think it was a nice exercise for me to have a format and deadlines and I would like the chance to take it to another level in 2008-09.

Now, let's talk about what you can expect to see here in the coming weeks. First up, I will be doing a free agency preview for each division, starting tomorrow with the Pacific. My plan is to do one division per day on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday of this week and next. I am going to start with the Pacific Division tomorrow and then work east until I wrap it all up with the Atlantic Division next Thursday. I will also more than likely mix in some other free agency commentary between now and July 1st.

Beyond that, I have other irons in the fire for the summer months. I will be doing another Salary Cap Challenge as well as another Prediction Panel. As before I will be enlisting the help of some of the blogosphere's best and brightest to participate in those posts. I also want to continue my analysis using Offensive Involvement Percentage (OI%) to break down the true top scorers of the NHL's past. My tentative plan with that is to break down the scoring leaders in each season by decade and see how they stack up. I will most likely tackle one decade per week (starting with the 1940's) and then keep a running list of the top 10 OI%'s in modern NHL history. So that is what I have planned so far. I will also be working on The Flower Shop so be sure to check in there as well. As always I'm open to feedback and ideas, so if you have any thoughts on where I should take this site during the harsh months of summer please by all means shoot me an e-mail.

Finally, I have a little gift out there for all hockey fans, but Penguins fans in particular. You can say what you will about the NHL, but in my opinion they are by far the best major sports league when it comes to using the internet to make their game more accessible to fans. With that in mind, I give you the classic Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals. Just in case you have 3 hours to kill.

Should The Penguins Trade Sidney Crosby?

The Pittsburgh Penguins are now 3 games into life without Sidney Crosby, and the results so far have been mixed. One thing that has been made very clear though is that Evgeni Malkin is more than capable of playing the role of "franchise center/forward/player" when Sid is out. Including last season, Malkin has shown that he can put the team on his back while Crosby is out of the lineup. That got me to thinking... would the Penguins be better off trading Sid?

Ever since early last season a hot topic for Penguins fans has been how will the team keep all of their young talent in Pittsburgh with a salary cap in place. This isn't to say that I don't think the Penguins can keep their core intact. I think the Senators have laid a solid blueprint for locking up the nucleus of your team and staying under the salary cap. I really do think the Penguins can keep Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Fleury, and Whitney in the black and gold for the long haul. But that doesn't mean they couldn't improve the team by moving Sid.

While I love Sid to death and would love nothing more than to see him win several Cups and rewrite the NHL record books in a Penguins jersey, I would not be upset if Crosby was traded in the "right" deal in order to improve the Pens' chances of winning the Stanley Cup. If the right offer came along, I wouldn't hold it against Ray Shero if he took it.

The first step would be to consider which teams would be viable candidates for acquiring Sidney's talents. There is no way you could move him to a division rival and really it would be ideal to move him to the Western Conference if he is to be dealt. With that in mind, here is my list of possible destinations for Sid:

• Toronto
• Montreal
• Detroit
• Chicago
• St. Louis
  
• Dallas
• Los Angeles
• Anaheim
• San Jose
• Colorado

Now that we have a where in place, we need to determine what would it take to get Sid out of the Steel City. In my mind it would probably take a couple top prospects, one or two proven NHL-caliber players, and maybe a draft pick or two. If you took this coming offseason as the earliest possible window for Crosby to be traded, I would narrow down the list of potential trade partners to Chicago, Anaheim, Los Angeles, Montreal, St. Louis and San Jose. I don't see the other teams on the above list having either enough to offer the Penguins in return or the need to give up that much in the coming year or two to be serious considerations.

I understand that any offer for a player of Sid's ability who is still years away from his prime would most likely be promptly rejected, but Ray Shero would have to take some time to think it over if one of the following offers came his way this offseason:

Chicago offers:
- Jonathan Toews
- Martin Havlat
- Brent Seabrook
- Cam Barker
- 1st Round Draft Pick
for:
- Sidney Crosby
- Sergei Gonchar

Los Angeles offers:
- Dustin Brown
- Patrick O'Sullivan
- Jack Johnson
- Thomas Hickey
- 1st Round Draft Pick
for:
- Sidney Crosby
- 3rd Round Pick

San Jose offers:
- Jonathan Cheechoo
- Devin Setoguchi
- Joe Pavelski
- Matt Carle
- 1st Round Pick
for:
- Sidney Crosby
- Sergei Anshakov

St. Louis offers:
- Brad Boyes
- David Perron
- T.J. Oshie
- Ian Cole
- 1st Round Pick
for:
- Sidney Crosby
- Brian Strait

These are offers that would be too tempting to immediately dismiss as they could set the Penguins up to be Cup favorites for many years. I do believe that any time in the next 2 or 3 years would be too early to move Sid. My goal here is more to illustrate the kind of offers I think it would take to land him and that the Penguins may be better off moving him. If they could bring in a package of players and picks comparable to the ones above to compliment the players already in place (especially if Angelo Esposito reaches his potential) they could form a dominant team in Pittsburgh.

As crazy as it may seem right now, there could come a time where trading Sidney Crosby gives the Pens their best chance at success. It's not like there isn't precedent for a move like this either. Gretzky was traded in his prime and the Penguins themselves traded Jaromir Jagr coming off a string of 4 consecutive NHL scoring titles (under less than ideal circumstances). Hopefully things would work out a little better for the Pens if Crosby is moved.

Anatomy Of A Salary Cap Crisis

In the wake of Mike Richards' new contract signing today, I figured the Flyers were painting themselves into a corner in regards to the salary cap. Never one to ignore a hunch, I opened up the Flyers page at nhlnumbers.com, took into account the new deal for Richards, and then found the following situation facing the Flyers:

• Daniel Briere - $6.5 million cap hit (8 years remaining)
• Kimmo Timonen - $6.33 million cap hit (6 years remaining)
  
• Mike Richards - $5.75 million cap hit (12 years remaining)
• Simon Gagne - $5.25 million cap hit (4 years remaining)
• Scott Hartnell - $4.08 million cap hit (6 years remaining)
• Derian Hatcher - $3.5 million cap hit (2 years remaining)
• Mike Rathje - $3.5 million cap hit (3 years remaining) yikes!
• Martin Biron - $3.5 million cap hit (2 years remaining)

That's over $38 million committed to 8 players, with the cap currently sitting at $50.3 million. I hope the flyers have a long list of players willing to play for the league minimum, because they have to fill out the remaining two thirds of their roster for about $12 million. I can already smell Kevin Lowe getting an offer sheet ready for R.J. Umberger.

2007 NHL Salary Cap Challenge

Anyone out there who spends any time on the web knows that us sports bloggers all think we would make great GMs and generally believe that we could do a better job running our favorite teams than the people who actually get paid to do so. Now while this may be true for Islanders and Knicks fans, I decided it was time for some of us to put our imaginary money where our mouths are. Thus, the TOFTT NHL Salary Cap Challenge was born! I have assembled some of the hockey blogosphere's best and brightest (and the guys from thepensblog) to assemble the best team possible given the following rules:

• We will be assembling a team of 20 players, 4 centers, 4 right wings, 4 left wings, 6 defensemen, and 2 goalies.
• The salary cap for this exercise was $45 million. This is lower than the actual NHL salary cap for two reasons; 1) because we only have 20 players on our rosters, and 2) to add a little more challenge to the proceedings. NOTE: Due to a clerical error on my part some people were operating with a $42 million dollar cap, that is why a couple people have a lot of cap room left. At least they'd have room to pull a big mid-season trade right?
  
• For the player salaries, we used the 07/08 player salaries (not their actual cap hit) from here.
• To keep things simple, we used the same source for player positions. Some of their listings were a little inaccurate but like I said, I wanted to keep things simple.

So under those constraints, here is what us self-proclaimed hockey knowledgeable people came up with (player salaries are in parenthesis):

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The Tyrone Snoops
GM: snoopyjode

Tomas Holmstrom (2.25) - Sidney Crosby (0.85) - Ryan Getzlaf (0.623)
Martin Erat (1.75) - Joe Thornton (6.67) - Michel Ouellet (1.2)
Brad Isbister (0.525) - Evgeni Malkin (0.984) - Mike Knuble (2.8)
Alex Ovechkin (0.984) - Jordan Staal (0.85) - Maxim Afinogenov (3.5)
Ryan Whitey (2.5) - Sergei Gonchar (5.5)
Mark Eaton (1.6) - Chris Phillips (3.5)
Joe Corvo (2.5) - Joe DiPenta (0.7)
Ryan Miller (2.5)
Marc-Andre Fleury (1.6)

Total Cap Space Spent = $43.386
Cap Space Remaining = $1.614

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On the Cheap
GM: "Dear Lord Stanley" a.k.a. Joe

Alex Ovechkin (0.984) - Sidney Crosby (0.85) - Dany Heatley (5.5)
Daniel Sedin (3.575) - Paul Stastny (0.685) - Maxim Afinogenov (3.5)
Andrew Brunette (1.6) - Sami Pahlsson (1.4) - Jason Pominville (0.925)
Alexander Semin (1.2) - Ryan Getzlaf (0.623) - Patrick Kane (0.875)
Dan Boyle (3.625) - Lubomir Visnovsky (2.052)
Dion Phaneuf (0.942) - John-Michael Liles (1.4)
Matt Carle (0.942) - Brian Campbell (1.75)
Roberto Luongo (6.5)
Peter Budaj (0.7)

Total Cap Space Spent = $39.628
Cap Space Remaining = $5.372

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The Love Rockets
GM: Jes Golbez

Marian Gaborik (6.5) - Sidney Crosby (0.85) - Pavol Demitra (4.5)
Cory Stillman (1.75) - Evgeni Malkin (0.984) - Justin Williams (3.5)
Jere Lehtinen (3.9) - Jordan Staal (0.85) - Corey Perry (0.494)
Jay Pandolfo (0.836) - Sami Pahlsson (1.4) - Branko Radivojevic (0.68)
Kevin Bieksa (0.55) - Francois Beauchemin (1.65)
Dion Phaneuf (0.942) - Lubomir Visnovsky (2.052)
Jaroslav Modry (1.2) - Mike Commodore (1.3)
Roberto Luongo (6.75)
Chris Mason (1.25)

Total Cap Space Spent = $41.938
Cap Space Remaining = $3.062

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The Jobbers
GM: The Pensblog staff

Alex Ovechkin (0.984) - Evgeni Malkin (0.984) - Jonathan Cheechoo (2.5)
Alexander Semin (1.2) - Sidney Crosby (0.85) - Bobby Ryan (0.85)
Martin Havlat (6.0) - Vincent Lacavalier (7.167) - Guillaume Latendresse (0.85)
Rick Nash (5.5) - Marc Savard (5.0) - Petr Sykora (2.5)
Dion Phaneuf (0.942) - Matt Carle (0.942)
Brent Seabrook (0.942) - Kris Letang (0.56)
Jay Bouwmeester (2.25) - Mark Eaton (1.6)
Marc-Andre Fleury (1.6)
Pascal Leclaire (1.4)

Total Cap Space Spent = $44.621
Cap Space Remaining = $0.379

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Mike's Affordable Young Men
GM: Mike Chen

Alex Ovechkin (0.984) - Sidney Crosby (0.85) - Jonathan Cheechoo (2.5)
Alexander Semin (1.2) - Eric Staal (4.5) - Milan Michalek (0.942)
Rick Nash (5.5) - Evgeni Malkin (0.984) - Corey Perry (0.494)
Henrik Zetterberg (2.7) - Paul Stastny (0.685) - Maxim Afinogenov (3.5)
Dan Boyle (3.625) - Jay Bouwmeester (2.25)
Matt Carle (1.367) - John-Michael Liles (1.4)
Chris Pronger (6.25) - Dion Phaneuf (0.942)
Ryan Miller (2.5)
Marc-Andre Fleury (1.6)

Total Cap Space Spent = $44.773
Cap Space Remaining = $0.227

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The Loser's Losers
GM: Loser Chris

Martin Havlat (6.0) - Sidney Crosby (0.85) - Ales Hemsky (3.6)
Alex Ovechkin (0.984) - Evgeni Malkin (0.984) - Alexander Radulov (0.689)
Henrik Zetterberg (2.7) - Eric Staal (4.5) - Jonathan Cheechoo (2.5)
Kristian Huselius (1.4) - Jordan Staal (0.85) - Colby Armstrong (1.2)
Dion Phaneuf (0.942) - Jay Bouwmeester (2.25)
Ryan Whitney (2.5) - Brian Campbell (1.75)
Marc-Andre Bergeron (1.045) - John-Michale Liles (1.4)
Mikka Kiprusoff (3.6)
Marc-Andre Fleury (1.6)

Total Cap Space Spent = $41.344
Cap Space Remaining = $3.656

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Analysis

• Most purchased player: No surprise here, Sidney Crosby was on everyone's team. It's a no-brainer when you have the best player in the league still in his rookie contract. Malkin, Ovechkin, and Phaneuf were right on Sid's heels.
• Most expensive purchase: Team Pensblog invested the most on a single player with Vincent Lecavalier and his accompanying $7.167 million price tag.
• Biggest shock: No Gary Roberts on Team Pensblog?!? What is the world coming to?
• Best bargain buy: It's hard to beat Corey Perry costing less than half a million.
• Guy I'd never heard of: Bobby Ryan? Are we sure that's a real guy?
  

The lesson learned here seems to be simple, load up on young talent (those rookie contracts are the best!) It will be real interesting to see how this exercise plays out in a couple of years when guys like Sid, Ovechkin, Malkin and Phaneuf get into their second contracts.

It was fun to put on the imaginary GM hat and play GM for a day. I just wish there was a way to really see these teams take each other on. That would be a hockey fan's dream come true. Hopefully everyone had as much fun doing this as I did. Now I have to go scout incoming rookies for next year's roster!