The 08-09 NHL Prediction Experience

It is the first of October, and that means the start of the 2008-09 NHL regular season is just a few short days away. Like any respectable hockey blogger, I need to chime in with my predictions for the season to come, so without further ado...

• Pacific Division Champ: Dallas Stars - This is going to be a tight division as the Stars, Ducks, and Sharks are all built to win now. While I really like the Ducks' chances this season, I really like what is going on in Dallas and I think they will eek out a division title.
  
• Northwest Division Champ: Calgary Flames - This division is down right now. I think the Wild and Avalanche have regressed a bit, the Oilers are still a year or two away, and the Canucks just are not that good. That leaves Jarome Iginla and the Flames to come out on top. Iginla should get serious Hart consideration again this season.
  
• Central Division Champ: Detroit Red Wings - I hate picking them to win, but there is not another team in their division strong enough to challenge them this season. Maybe next year Blackhawks fans.
  
• Southeast Division Champ: Carolina Hurricanes - This was a tough one to call for me at first. After giving it some thought though I think Carolina comes out on top. I think the Capitals will regress a little bit under raised expectations and there just isn't enough defense/goaltending in Tampa for me to pick them. I think the Hurricanes will take advantage of being able to fly under the radar for a bit and claim the 3 seed in the East.
  
• Northeast Division Champ: Ottawa Senators - Everyone and their mother is picking the Canadiens to run wild over the rest of the Eastern Conference this season, but I just don't see it. For some reason I can not explain I think the Sens are going to make one more go of it before their Stanley Cup winning window officially closes for a couple years.
  
• Atlantic Division Champ: Philadelphia Flyers - The Flyers are getting their franchise back on track and look to benefit from some addition via subtraction thanks to Derian Hatcher's injury status. I think this will be the most competitive division in hockey (again) this year, and I see the Flyers ending up on top. I think the Rangers will get off to a bit of a slow start as all of their new faces start to gel, and I think the Penguins will hit too many bumps in the road to win the division. Between the Europe trip and their injuries on defense I think the Pens will be hampered enough that they will have to settle for the fourth or fifth seed in the East.
  
• Hart Trophy Winner (MVP): Sidney Crosby - You will get some argument over this, but I think Sid proved last Spring that he is the best player in the game today. I think the defeat in the Finals will drive Crosby to take his game to another level, something that I am sure is a scary thought for the rest of the NHL. I think the Penguins as a team will have their struggles this season, but I do not expect many for their captain.
  
• Vezina Trophy Winner (Top Goalie): Henrik Lundqvist - I think this will be the year King Henrik breaks through and takes his first Vezina. I expect the Devils to drop off enough to deal a blow to Brodeur's chances. Then again, if Marty can get this year's Devils squad back to the post-season he may be deserving of some more hardware. Hopefully this is the year Marc-Andre Fleury gets his name into the Vezina discussion.
  
• Norris Trophy Winner (Top Defender): Dion Phaneuf - Much like Lundqvist with the Vezina, I think this will be the year Phaneuf breaks Nicklas Lidstrom's hold on the Norris trophy and starts a run of his own. Phaneuf is arguably the best all-around blue liner in the game and he should be a regular Norris finalist for the next ten seasons.
  
• Adams Trophy Winner (Top Coach): Dave Tippett - I already said I expect big things from the Stars and that should translate into some honors for their coach. Hopefully this award will go to a coach who gets continued excellence from his team all season long and not someone who squeaks into the playoffs with a team nobody expected a lot from.
  
• Art Ross Trophy Winner (Most Points): Sidney Crosby- As long as Sid stays healthy this one is a slam dunk. When the game's most gifted offensive player is also its hardest worker you have a recipe for scoring titles.
• Richard Trophy Winner (Most Goals): Dany Heatley - I went back and forth between Heatley and Iginla on this one, but finally settled on Heatley. I think Dany has the edge because he has better talent around him, like center Jason Spezza, and he will face more teams with bad defenses in the Eastern Conference (see Toronto and the entire Southeast Division as a reference). If Ilya Kovalchuk can stay interested for a full season in Atlanta he coule walk away with the Richard easily.
  
• Stanley Cup Finals: Dallas Stars v Pittsburgh Penguins - Only Detroit stood in the way of this dream matchup (as a Penguins fan withing driving distance of Dallas) last season, but I think I might just get my wish this time around. A lot can change between now and then (especially if someone like Marian Gaborik gets moved), but for now I'm taking this Finals matchup with the Pens skating the Cup on home ice with a six game series victory.

That's all for me from now. There's not much else to do except wait for the puck to drop in Prague and for Yahoo Fantasy to put Sergei Gonchar and Ryan Whitney on IR (more on that later). So for the time being I guess I'll just sit back and wait for all the Caps, Habs, Sharks, and whoever else fans to tell me how stupid I am in the comments section. Game on!

Finally!

Don't look now, but the boys are back and their gloves are golder than ever! Head over to Faceoff Factor for some top shelf training camp coverage.

Just to give you an idea of where things are currently at with me... I am totally engrossed in NHL 09 and The Originals in particular. That said, I will have an NHL 09 review up here some time this week and then next week I will get into season prediction mode.

In other exciting news, I got my Pens/Stars tickets yesterday! March 1st can't get here fast enough.

Pacific Division 2008 Free Agency Preview

As promised, here is the breakdown for what teams in the Pacific Division are looking at in regards to free agency come July 1st. This is the first in a six part (obviously) series that will run through next Thursday. We'll be starting on the West Coast and heading east. Lists are broken up into restricted free agents (RFA's) and unrestricted free agents (UFA's) with their 2007-08 salaries in parenthesis.

Anaheim Ducks

Pending UFA's:

• Doug Weight ($3,500,000)
• Teemu Selanne ($1,500,000)
• Joe DiPenta ($700,000)
  
• Mark Mowers ($475,000)
  

Pending RFA's:

• Corey Perry ($494,000)
• Brian Sutherby ($800,000)
• Jonas Hiller ($850,000)
  

Cap $$$ Committed: $49.8 million
Notes: The Ducks are in pretty bad shape in regards to the salary cap. I have to believe there is a GM out there who is going to make a big run at signing Corey Perry, knowing that there won't be a lot of options for Anaheim to match. One other very interesting thing about the Anaheim roster, they have zero defensemen signed beyond next season. Brian Burke really has a mess on his hands in Anaheim.

Dallas Stars

Pending UFA's:

• Stu Barnes ($900,000)
• Antti Miettinen ($885,000)
• Niklas Hagman ($675,000)
• Brad Winchester ($475,000)
• Johan Holmqvist ($1,000,000)
  

Pending RFA's:

• Loui Eriksson ($650,000)
• Francis Wathier ($475,000)
• Brandon Crombeen ($675,000)
  

Cap $$$ Committed: $46.5 million
Notes: The Stars don't have a ton of cap space, but they already have most of their roster coming back for next season. One big hole to fill will be the recently retired Mattias Norstrom. They may want to explore their options in regards to finding a backup for Marty Turco as well. I think Stu Barnes will be back, but I wouldn't be surprised if Niklas Hagman left for a better offer as he has shown flashes of ability in Dallas.

Los Angeles Kings

Pending UFA's:

• Rob Blake ($6,000,000)
  
• Ladislav Nagy ($3,570,000)
• Scott Thornton ($1,500,000)
• Brian Willsie ($900,000)
• Jon Klemm ($500,000)
• Kevin Dallman ($490,000)
  
• Jeff Giuliano ($475,000)
  

Pending RFA's:

• Patrick O'Sullivan ($650,000)
• Erik Ersberg ($575,000)
  

Cap $$$ Committed: $32 million
Notes: The Kings have plenty of cap space to spend, which should be a good thing for this perpetually rebuilding club. Patrick O'Sullivan should get a healthy raise and Rob Blake will probably be back, but beyond that is anyone's guess. Maybe they could be the club to make a run at cross town rival Anaheim's Corey Perry.

Phoenix Coyotes

Pending UFA's:

• Radim Vrbata ($1,225,000)
• Mike York ($1,000,000)
• Niko Kapanen ($900,000)
• Craig Weller ($475,000)
• Mathias Tjarnqvist ($475,000)

Pending RFA's:

• Marcel Hossa ($780,000)
• Daniel Carcillo ($525,000)
• Joel Perrault ($495,000)
• Matt Jones ($522,000)
  

Cap $$$ Committed: $29.9 million
Notes: Much like the Kings, the Coyotes have a lot of cap space and nowhere to go in the standings but up. Unlike the Kings, Phoenix seems to have a better nucleus of players in place and thus more reason to be optimistic about the upcoming season. I would expect guys like Hossa and Vrbata to be back next season, but it will be real interesting to see how they deal with Daniel Carcillo. Wayne Gretzky seems to think Carcillo has a lot of potential in the NHL, but he has also been frustrated by his continuing lack of maturity. This team would probably do well to try to upgrade their blue line through free agency. If I were them I would probably throw a big contract at Brian Campbell and cross my fingers that he would take it.

San Jose Sharks

Pending UFA's:

• Brian Campbell ($1,750,000)
• Curtis Brown ($700,000)
• Patrick Rissmiller ($595,000)
• Jody Shelley ($650,000)
• Alexei Semenov ($650,000)
• Sandis Ozolinsh ($625,000)
  
• Jeremy Roenick ($500,000)
• Tomas Plihal ($500,000)
• Brian Boucher ($490,000)
  
• Brad Norton ($475,000)
  

Pending RFA's:

• Christian Ehrhoff ($900,000)
• Joe Pavelski ($810,000)
• Marcel Goc ($800,000)
• Ryan Clowe ($600,000)
  

Cap $$$ Committed: $38 million
Notes: The big name that jumps out here is obviously Brian Campbell. The Sharks gave up a lot to bring Campbell at the deadline and though he fit in right away during the regular season, Campbell had a disappointing playoff. The Sharks will undoubtedly try to keep Campbell, but they may have a tough time as they have a few talented youngsters (Pavelski, Rissmiller, and Clowe in particular) up for new contracts who will be looking for significant raises. I think the Sharks may have a fight on their hands to keep Campbell as there should be plenty of teams lining up to sign him. Especially since he came off at the trade deadline as a guy who is more interested in getting the biggest contract than anything else.

2008 Playoffs: Recapping The Conference Finals

After a pair of series that at one point both looked to be heading towards sweeps, we now have our Stanley Cup finalists. The Pittsburgh Penguins will be taking on the Detroit Red Wings for the right to lift hockey's holy grail. Before we get into breaking down the Finals, let's take one last look at how both teams got there.

Pittsburgh v Philadelphia

I said: Pens in 5
What happened: Pens in 5
Comments: This series was never close, as I expected going in. The Flyers were banged up on their blue line, but I really don't think that mattered too much in the end. The Penguins are getting near-flawless performances from every player on a nightly basis right now. Philly are a much improved team and they can be proud of what they did this season, but they simply had no answer for the Penguins defense or offense in this series. Oh, and having MAF in net helped a little too.

Detroit v Dallas

I said: Stars in 6
What happened: Wings in 6
Comments: I probably should have listened to my head more than my heart when predicting this series, but I really thought the Stars would have enough gas left in the tank to force out Detroit. They did make things interesting before all was said and done, but it was too little too late. Now Detroit has to get ready to face by far the toughest opponent they have come up against this post-season.

2008 Playoffs: Conference Finals Predictions

The chase for Lord Stanley's Cup is down to four teams as the NHL Conference Finals get underway tomorrow night in Detroit. Both series should be very entertaining and hard fought. Much is being made of the physical aspect of the Flyers/Pens series in particular, but I think the Western Conference Final has the potential to get a bit nasty as well. In any case, on to the predictions!

Western Conference Final

(1) Detroit vs. (5) Dallas

Breakdown: Dallas has had arguably the toughest road to the third round of any of the four remaining teams, and I think that will help them against Detroit. By comparison, the Wings had a cakewalk series against Colorado and haven't really been tested since games 3 & 4 against Nashville. I think the Stars can walk away from this series victorious, but I really think they need to at least split the first two games in Detroit. I think Dallas is the better team here, but not so much better that they can afford to go down 2-0 in the series and expect to win 4 out of 5 games against the Red Wings.
Player to Watch: Marty Turco (DAL) - Playing in Detroit has never been kind to Turco, as his 0-7-2 record at "The Joe" will attest. Turco is going to have to forget about that and focus on the now if the Stars are going to return to the Stanley Cup Finals. If Turco can continue to play at the level he has in the first two rounds, then I really like the Stars' chances to move on.
Prediction: Stars in 6

Eastern Conference Final

(2) Pittsburgh vs. (6) Philadelphia

Breakdown: They invented the phrase "no love lost" just for a series like this one. These teams really don't like each other and this could turn out to be the most physical series of the entire post-season. That in turn could lead to a lot of odd-man situations, which favors Pittsburgh. The Pens' power play has been great in the playoffs, but their penalty kill has quietly been their strongest asset thus far. If the Pens can continue to dominate special teams play, get scoring from the third and fourth lines, and keep getting clutch goaltending from Marc-Andre Fleury they will make short work of the Flyers.
Player to Watch: Jarkko Ruutu (PIT) - Ruutu is one of those guys who is always trying to stir up trouble. If he can get under the Flyers' skin without crossing the line (to much) and ending up in the box then he could really help tilt the special teams battle in Pens' favor. Plus he is one of those guys for Pittsburgh who has the ability to chip in with a very timely goal.
Prediction: Pens in 5

2008 Playoffs: Second Round Recap

Well that didn't take long! The second round of the NHL playoffs went by pretty fast as only one series failed to see a team go up 3-0. Ultimately there was only one series sweep, but the second round flew by nonetheless. Let's take a final look back at how I fared with my predictions (quite well if I may say).

Pittsburgh v Rangers

I said: Pens in 6
What happened: Pens in 5
Comments: I expected this series to be longer as I thought these the best two teams in the East. Every game in the series was close, but at the end of the day the Pens prevailed thanks to their special teams and goaltending. The Penguins' power play and penalty kill were both amazing throughout the series and that was the difference. Marc-Andre Fleury continued to be outstanding in net as well. In the end the Rangers just couldn't keep up with the youthful Penguins. It was nice to see Jaromir Jagr still has some gas left in the tank though.

Philadelphia v Montreal

I said: Flyers in 6
What happened: Flyers in 5
Comments: This was the Montreal team I had been waiting to see. I am going to give the Flyers credit for overcoming their game 1 collapse and still wrapping up the series in five games, but Montreal was never really in this series. Carey Price was a disaster for the Habs and he left them with almost no chance to prevail. Easy work for the Flyers in round 2.

Detroit v Colorado

I said: Wings in 7
What happened: Wings in 4
Comments: What a disappointing end to the season for Jose Theodore. He almost singlehandedly got Colorado past the Wild in round 1, and then singlehandedly lost round 2 for them against Detroit. I'm not trying to short change Detroit here, but the Avalanche had no chance in this series with the way Theodore played. Detroit could not have had an easier second round.

Dallas v San Jose

I said: Stars in 6
What happened: Stars in 6
Comments: The Sharks were lucky to get by Calgary, while the Stars took out the defending champs. Seemed like a no-brainer to me. Plus I just think Dallas is a flat out better team than the Sharks. Plus with Marty Turco and Brenden Morrow playing at the level they are right now things are looking really good for the Stars. The Sharks were lucky to push this series to a sixth game.

2008 Playoffs: Second Round Hype Machine!

It's time to get the blood flowing!!!

Red Wings/ Avalanche


Stars/Sharks


Penguins/Rangers


Flyers/Canadiens

2008 Playoffs: Second Round Predictions

We're on to round two of the playoffs! This is generally where the real Cup contenders start to separate themselves from the other remaining teams and I don't think this season will be any different. I think this will be the round where we look back and see that the eventual finalists really started to get on a roll.

Eastern Conference

(1) Montreal vs. (7) Philadelphia

Breakdown: I'm man enough to admit that I really have no handle on Montreal at this point. I really don't think that highly of them and would love to pick against them in round two. That said, I also have a hard time picking Martin Biron to get a team to the Conference Finals. I guess that's my long way of saying that I go back and forth on this series.
Player to Watch: Derian Hatcher (PHI) - Hatcher may be the worst skater in the NHL today. Not just among playoff teams either, I'm talking all 30 teams here. Having said that, if he can keep up with Montreal's speedy group of forwards and help neutralize them then Philly stands a much better chance of getting by the Habs.
Prediction: Flyers in 6

(2) Pittsburgh vs. (5) New York Rangers

Breakdown: This is the premier match up in the East to me. I am on record as saying that I think the winner of this series will win the Cup. The Rangers did well against the Pens in the regular season, especially at MSG, but I'm not reading too much into that. Both teams are well rested so I don't think the layoffs benefit one particular team leading into game 1. It should be a pretty tight series, but the Devils were able to score a few goals against the Rangers which makes me think the Pittsburgh offense should be able to get the job done.
Player to Watch: Michal Rozsival (NYR) - Rozsival has made a career out of playing the Pens since joining the Rangers and they will need some of that offensive boost from the blue line to get enough pucks by Marc-Andre Fleury to be competitive in this series.
Prediction: Pens in 6

Western Conference

(1) Detroit vs. (7) Colorado

Breakdown: This rivalry doesn't carry quite the buzz it used to, but that doesn't mean we aren't in store for a good series. I think these teams match up pretty well and it should be a close series. I think Detroit is in a little better shape with Osgood in net and they have more talent and experience on defense. I think those two things will be enough to put them over the top. Joe Sakic and company are playing well enough to make quite a series of this though.
Player to Watch: Andrew Brunette (COL) - The Avalanche will need to continue to get goals from their depth players to make this a competitive series. If Brunette can carry over his hot hand from the series against Minnesota that will go a long way towards helping Colorado make life hard on Detroit.
Prediction: Wings in 7

(2) San Jose vs. (5) Dallas

Breakdown: Much like the Pens/Rangers series in the East, I think this series will produce the team that represents the Western Conference in the Finals. This should be a hard fought series and I think there will be more scoring than one might initially think. These teams are really close on paper and it really could go either way. I think Dallas has an edge though based on how they played while taking out the Ducks and the consistency they showed.
Player to Watch: Brad Richards (DAL) - This series is why the Stars went out and got Richards at the trade deadline. He can be the difference maker for Dallas in this series with his scoring and two-way play. He will need to be among Dallas' top scorers in the series for them to move on.
Prediction: Stars in 6

A Star Is Reborn In Dallas

What a difference a record setting night in San Jose can make. Mike Modano entered his game on November 7th against the Sharks one goal behind Joe Mullen for the most goals ever scored in the NHL by an American born player. Modano scored two fantastic goals that night to move into the record books, and he has been on a tear ever since.

Back on top of his game!

Since that early November game Modano has scored 6 goals and 6 assists in his last 11 games, helping to catapult the Stars to the top of the Pacific Division. This is after notching just 2 goals and 3 assists in his first 14 games this season. Clearly Modano has turned his game around since getting the weight of the goal scoring record off of his back.

Modano's turnaround could not have come at a better time for the goal starved Stars. Offense has been a problem for the Stars for quite a while now (just look at their playoff series against Vancouver last season), but they have taken advantage of superb goaltending and Modano's hot hand to make a charge up the Western Conference standings.

Dallas clearly owes much of their recent success to the classy Modano, who stuck with the team despite being unceremoniously stripped of his captaincy prior to the start of last season. Even as Modano struggled out of the starting gates this season his critics circled like vultures as he painstakingly plodded towards the goal record. Ironically, Modano has been on fire ever since and looks to have the last laugh on those who were so quick to slap the "Washed Up" label on him less than a month ago. With the grace he has shown Navigating the rinks of the NHL throughout his career, Mike Modano has made it through one of the toughest stretches of his Hall of Fame career and retaken his seat at the table among the NHL's elite.

O Hockeytown, Where Art Thou?

Enough is enough, it is time to strip Detroit of its (undeserved?) Hockeytown title. I never liked the whole Hockeytown thing to begin with, especially since the Red Wings bestowed the title on themselves. Shouldn't something like that be voted on? Well that's just what we're going to do! We're going to choose a new Hockeytown right here and now.

The nominees:

• Buffalo - Plenty of teams in the NHL are having attendance issues these days, some even failing to sell out home playoff games (yes, I'm looking at you Detroit). Well the Sabres not only sell out their games, they also packed the area outside the arena with fans to watch the game going on inside projected onto a big screen. How many teams could pull that off? The Sabres were also named the best franchise in sports by ESPN not too long ago (for whatever that is worth). Buffalo is a strong choice to take on the mantle of Hockeytown, USA and probably has to be considered the favorite here.
  
• San Jose - Hidden on the west coast, I don't think most people realize what a good hockeytown San Jose is. But is it worthy of being Hockeytown? Sharks fans have come a long way. I remember being at the San Jose arena during the '93-'94 season to see the Sharks take on the Nordiques and someone sitting behind me asking the person they were with if the Nords were an expansion team. Well the Sharks have carried on and now their fans are (for the most part) as knowledgeable as they are loud, and that is saying something. If you don't think San Jose belongs on this list, take in a playoff game at the "Shark Tank" and then get back to me.
  
• Chicago - This may turn out to be an optimistic choice on my part, but I think Chicago is in for a hockey renaissance. The team is loaded with young talent and the team and fans both seem eager to put the Bill Wirtz experience behind them. They're even getting home games on TV now! Seriously though, I don't think there is any doubt Chicago is back on the hockey map.
  
• Minneapolis/St. Paul - In very Red Wing-esque fashion, the Wild have declared Minnesota the "State of Hockey". They are pretty much right though so I'll let it slide. As far as hockey goes, Minnesota is pretty much South Canada, and that's a good thing. The Wild's fanbase is as knowledgeable and passionate as it gets in the States. Of course I have to mention that they are on their second run with the NHL.
  
• Dallas - A surprise nominee to many I'm sure, but deserving nonetheless. I can say from first hand experience that going to a Stars game is as good as it gets. The arena is top notch and it has fans to match. It will always be Cowboys first in Dallas, that is just how things work here in Texas, but there is also a die hard Stars fanbase in Dallas that can't be matched. If you are a hockey fan, you owe it to yourself to take in a Stars home game. Just don't expect to sit down a whole lot. A definite dark horse in this contest, Dallas may just get my vote.
  
• Detroit - I'll give the incumbent a chance to defend its title here, but I don't think it deserves it any more (if it ever truly did). I have a hard time calling somewhere Hockeytown when you've got empty seats for home playoff games. I think Wings fans in general have grown a bit tired of the same-old same-old from the Wings and are a bit apathetic at this point. I could be wrong, but I doubt it.
  

Just missed the cut:

• Pittsburgh- The Pens have as rabid a fanbase as you will find, but I can't bring myself to put Pittsburgh on the list when they're less than a year removed from almost losing the team.
  
• Denver - The Avalanche have a great track record since relocating from Quebec. I just don't see them at the level as some of the teams above. Denver sort of strikes me as Dallas-lite.
  
• Boston - A great hockeytown to be sure, but the Bruins are an afterthought on the Boston sports scene.
  
• Nashville - Just kidding. The situation in Nashville is a joke/mess. Just move them to Kansas City already. Then in 5-10 years when that fails they can move to Hamilton.