Reacting To The Marian Hossa Trade

As I packed up at work and headed for school today at noon Central time Marian Hossa was still in play in the NHL's trade deadline dealing. TSN made it sound all morning as though it was only a matter of if he would end up in Montreal or Ottawa. They even kept talking up how the Thrashers were in Montreal for a game tonight and how easy it would be for him to just stroll down the hall to the home team locker room. Easy indeed.

When I arrived home I kissed the wife and kids and headed for the computer. I had a notion this morning that Sergei Fedorov was going to end up a Pen, so I was curious about that, but I was more curious to see where Hossa landed. As I typed in the web address for TSN and was hitting enter, the thought entered my mind Wouldn't it be wild if Shero snagged Hossa? Sure enough as quickly as the thought formed in my brain there was Marian Hossa on TSN's home page staring back at me in a Penguins jersey.

This is where the story takes an unexpected turn...

You would think my initial reaction would have been one of jubilation. It was not. The first thing to go through my head was, Who did we have to give up? As things turned out, the finalized deal went down as:

Marian Hossa
Pascal Dupuis
for
Colby Armstrong
Erik Christensen
Angelo Esposito
2008 1st round pick

Let's just take this one thing at a time. I had a feeling all along that Christensen wouldn't be here after the deadline and it turns out I was right on that one. I think he still has a good chance to turn into a really good player, and we'll miss him in the shootout naturally, but he's an acceptable loss. Angelo Esposito was going to face an uphill battle to find a spot in Pittsburgh and was a very tradeable asset so I didn't give that a second thought. And a draft pick is pretty much a lottery ticket so that's no big loss either. There's already enough 1st round talent on the Penguins.

But then there was that one other name... Colby Armstrong. That one stung a bit. Colby has been one of my favorite players for quite a while now and I think he plays played a big role for the Pens on the ice and in "the room". Colby is going to be missed very much by the team and the fans. A lot will be made about his relationship with Sid, and I think for good reason. I don't think the Penguins need to keep players around just because Sid likes them, but I think Colby (from what I've heard/read) did a great job of keeping Sid grounded and making him feel like one of the guys. Something Sid seems to truly desire. I know Sid is too much of a pro to complain about Colby being sent to Atlanta, but you know it disappoints him a little.

I'm disappointed too. I knew going in that there was a good chance that Colby could get traded. Honestly, if it came down to needing to include either Colby, Ryan Malone, or Jordan Staal then I think Shero made the right move. I just wish it could have been someone like Ruutu instead. When it all comes down to it though, for me the nucleus of this Penguins team is:

• Sidney Crosby
• Evgeni Malkin
• Marc-Andre Fleury
• Jordan Staal
• Ryan Whitney
• Kris Letang

Having said that, when it comes to trades, especially for players like Marian Hossa, everyone else is fair game.

When I started going through this post in my head I was full of thoughts about how the Penguins overpaid for Hossa if they don't re-sign him, and what would be the trickle down effect of adding a contract like that if they do re-sign him, but I'm not going to get into that. The bottom line for me at this point is that the Penguins brought in a world class talent to play with Sidney and they are a more potent offensive team than they were 24 hours ago. They have players who can fill the roles left empty by Colby and EC (including Dupuis, who I think is an unsung part of this deal), but they didn't have someone like Hossa just waiting around. As far as the cap impact if they do re-sign Hossa, which I'm going to go on record and say they will do, I think they'll be okay. If Ottawa can lock up their top line and still have money to spend then Shero should be able to do the same with Sid, Geno, and Marian. And don't think that extra money Sid left on the table last summer isn't a huge boost for the Pens right now.

Another positive byproduct of the Pens getting Hossa is that Montreal and Ottawa didn't. The Pens not only strengthened themselves with this acquisition, but they also kept Hossa away from two of their biggest competitors in the Eastern Conference and have set themselves up to be one of the favorites to make it to the Finals from the East. That's all you can ask for from your GM on deadline day, and with the brass of a riverboat gambler Ray Shero has come through again for Penguins fans.

In Shero We Trust!

The Best & Worst Case Scenarios For The Penguins

As we have all heard by now, the Penguins lost captain and star center Sidney Crosby for the foreseeable future due to the dreaded high ankle sprain. Sid was tied for the NHL scoring lead entering the game and will obviously be missed by the Pens. Early indications were that Sid could be back in four weeks, but after some tests were done today the only conclusion was that more tests are needed. After watching how slowly things have gone with Penguins netminder Marc-Andre Fleury I'll be happy if Sid is back in six weeks.

Ron Francis would have shaken it off! j/k

So where do the Penguins go from here? They are still tied with the Devils for the lead in the Atlantic Division, but this division has been so tough this year that they are only six points ahead of the last place Rangers entering today's games. The Penguins have more than their share of injury troubles right now, but they still have enough talent to stay in the thick of things until Crosby returns. There are a lot of different ways things could go for Pittsburgh as the season winds down. Here are the best and worst case scenarios:

Best Case Scenario:
If the Mellon Arena roof opens and the Hockey Gods smile upon the Pittsburgh Penguins, the following things will take place:

• Sidney Crosby will be out only four weeks and return to the Penguins lineup refreshed and ready to carry the team through a deep playoff run this Spring.
• Marc-Andre Fleury will return form his high ankle sprain by mid-February and regain the form he was showing before the injury when he was playing his best hockey of the season.
• Gary Roberts will return form his broken leg on schedule and rested.
• Evgeni Malkin will thrive in the absence of Crosby, playing like the franchise center he was always intended to be before Sid was drafted, and maintain that high level of play even after Sid returns from injury.
• Conk keeps on being Conk and helps the Pens maintain their lead in the Atlantic.
• Jordan Staal awakens from his slumber and regains the scoring touch (and luck) he displayed during his rookie campaign.
• Petr Sykora goes on one of his hot streaks and helps fill the scoring void left by Sid.
• With the brass of a riverboat gambler, Ray Shero brings in some added scoring punch at the trade deadline.
• Tyler Kennedy continues to develop and provide timely scoring for the Penguins.
• Colby Armstrong and Ryan Malone find a way to score consistently without Sid on the ice with them.
• The Penguins defense tightens up like a dad on prom night.

If all these things happen (yes that's a huge if, but like I said this is the best case scenario), then everything will be in place for the Pens to make a deep run into the playoffs and possibly all the way to the Finals. If the Pens can catch a few breaks and stay in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race, there's no reason why this time off for their injured players couldn't prove to be a blessing in the long run. But then again...

Worst Case Scenario:
For every silver lining there's a cloud. Let's take a look at what might transpire if Sid's ankle injury turns out to be the iceberg to the Penguins' Titanic of a season. After all, the following things could happen:

• Sid misses eight weeks or more and the Pens are out of the playoff hunt by the time he returns.
• Marc-Andre Fleury makes it back around the same time Sid does.
• Gary Roberts just isn't the same after his eventual return to the ice. Not that he was filling the net before he broke his leg.
• Jordan Staal keeps producing the way he has been all season. If you can call it production.
• Conk goes back to being Ty Conklin.
• Malkin folds under the pressure of carrying the team offensively and is a shadow of his previous self.
• None of the depth players pick up any of the scoring slack.
• The Penguins defense puts too much pressure on themselves to ease the burden on the forwards and buckles.
• The rest of the Atlantic Division runs roughshod over the depleted Penguins and drops them to the bottom of the standings.

As great as the best case scenario would be, the above events could just as easily happen and this season could quickly become one to forget for the Penguins. This could be a season remembered by Penguins fans with one phrase... high ankle sprain.

I'm optimistic that the Penguins will keep things going well enough to stay afloat until Sid returns, assuming that happens around the six week mark I mentioned before. If Sid's injury drags out the way MAF's has then the Penguins could be in real trouble. Hopefully the rest will agree with Sid and he can come back for the playoffs with something to prove and help get the Pens at least to the Eastern Conference Finals.

The biggest thing for the Penguins to be successful is that they need to replace Sid's production as a team and not look to one guy to do it. Yes Geno will be looked to the most, but the Pens will also need more from guys like Staal, Malone, Sykora, Armstrong, Ruutu, and Christensen. It is going to take a complete team effort for the Penguins to keep up their recent winning ways, but there's no reason at all to think they can't do it. I'm sure there are more than a couple guys in that locker room eager and able to fight for a spot in that spotlight that was attached to Crosby.

The bottom line is that if winning the Cup was easy, we wouldn't have to sit around and listen to Mats Sundin trade rumors all Winter. The Pens need to pull it together and get after it as a team. And this is one fan who thinks they can.

Some Stars Don't Shine In Shootouts

Following Pittsburgh's shootout victory over the Canucks on Saturday night, a game in which Sidney Crosby was not only stopped by Roberto Luongo in the shootout, but also on an OT penalty shot, I started to reflect on Sidney's relatively poor track record in shootouts. I couldn't help but think that Michel Therrien might better serve the Pens by letting someone else take Sid's place in the shootout. This in turn led me to wonder how many other big name players are sent out in the shootouts by their coaches despite a lack of success. After going through the shootout stats since the start of the '06-'07 season, there is quite a list of big name players who have been disappointing in the shootout.

Some of the most prominent players are:

• Sidney Crosby - 6/20 (.300%)
• Alexander Ovechkin - 2/13 (.154%)
• Vincent Lecavalier - 3/14 (.214%)
• Henrik Zetterberg - 2/9 (.222%)
• Evgeni Malkin - 3/16 (.188%)
• Thomas Vanek - 2/11 (.181%)
• Patrick Elias - 2/11 (.181%)

My first reaction when researching these stats was that Crosby's numbers are actually a little better than I thought they were, yet still not as good as I would expect from him. For some reason I'm not surprised that Ovechkin hasn't fared well in shootouts. He's more of a finisher to me than a guy who can consistently take on goalies one-on-one and prevail. The numbers for Lecavalier, Zetterberg, and Elias (and Vanek to a lesser degree) really shocked me. These are craftier players who have been around for a while, and you would think they would be more successful in this setting.

The real question here is whether or not these players are helping their teams by taking part in the overtime shootouts. I recognize that there is pressure for a coach to send out a premier player like Crosby or Lecavalier, but at some point results have to start to come into play. If you look around the league, it isn't hard to find some "no name" players who have excelled at the shootout. Erik Christensen has been a revelation for Pittsburgh, going 11 for 18 in shootouts since the start of last season. Devils defensive specialist John Madden is a somewhat surprising (I think his offense is better than he gets credit for) 4 for 7 when participating in shootouts. And then there is the Wild's secret shootout weapon, defenseman Petteri Nummelin is a remarkable 8 for 9 in shootouts. Certainly these players help show that results count more than the name on the back of the jersey.

This isn't to say the stars should be given up on. For example, Anaheim center Andy McDonald was 1 for 10 in shootouts last season, but has converted both of his opportunities so far this season. I'm simply saying that coaches could probably secure a few extra points for their teams if they looked a little outside the box when putting together their shootout lineups. Would it hurt for the Penguins to try Kris Letang (2 for 2) in Crosby's usual 3 slot for a bit, or for the Canucks to make Trevor Linden (4 for 5) a regular shootout participant? It could mean a few extra points in the standings. And in today's NHL, that can be the difference between making the playoffs or golfing in April.